Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (2642)	4/14/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: Jing Qian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

My point is eBay should get into Business-to-person auction quickly. Business to person auction doesn't have the fraud burden. How many times people will get cheated by buying from an established business? Fraud is something eBay needs to do to enhance, but exploring new field is more vitally important. IMHO, eBay should immediately start to do the following: 1) Regional person-to-person sites. 2) Business to individual auction sites. 3) Business to Business auction sites.

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (2642)	4/20/1999 10:20:00 PM
From: James1000	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

>One thing eBay COULD do right now, if it so chose, would be to place a special marker besides a listing for anyone whose rating is 100 or higher (and with 1 or fewer negative feedbacks). Doug, I get the feeling you don't go to eBay often. There already is a special marker next to people who have over 100 positive feedback. There are five different styles of a star logo for 10, 100, 500, 1000, and 10,000 ratings. Too bad eBay stock doesn't have much longer before it caps off. I was really upset when I forgot about what was going to be my investment. I planned to invest as much as possible in eBay when it went public. When I finally got my computer back up and running I could have cried when it had already doubled and I figured it was too late. Well, after "knowing" its overvalued for so long I can only come to realize that presently this is just a step up from a pyramid-mailing scheme. Although that sounds ridiculous at first it has to be noted that although eBay makes a profit it is a very small 3 million. If I rely on the previous post that in 2003 auction spending will be about 20 billion then you would come up with: 20 billion market X 70% market share = 13.3 billion trade value 13.3 billion trade value * 3% commission = 400 million in revenue 400 * 10% profit margin = 40 million profit 40 million profit X "High" P/E of 100 = 4,000,000 market value as opposed to the current price tag of about 20 billion. You would think that this might mean eBay will be more than 75% overvalued even in the year 2003. These numbers really mean nothing because a stock unless owned in huge quantity or with a large dividend payoff (impossible with eBay right now) is worth only whatever speculation money people put into it. The stock will simply grow as big as investment will allow. I believe there are over twice the current number who still will be "suckered" into buying the stock. That means the price will still more than double before it crashes. I plan to buy next Monday and sell either when the market cap exceeds 50 billion or Dec 10. Why December 10? The Y2K bug will panic at least a few people into selling their stock. eBay has at least a tiny stable profit and business model so it would be very risky to short. Too bad I didn't see things more clearly before.