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Gold/Mining/Energy : CGI Group (GIB.A) - -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: claud_c who wrote (1164)	4/15/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: Greg R	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1673

Claud - Answer's to your ?'s re when and what price. Sorry about the INPATHIQUE gibberish, I was talking to other INPATHIQUE Analyst's. I am first going to answer based upon what I am expecting, then I will give you a discussion of the worst case as I see it. <<-INPATHIQUE's chart would require the price to be dropping down to at least that value ($?) at that time (when?)>> I expect the price to reach $39.50 April 23/26 then to drop down through $35.50 on April 30/May 3 I emphasize again however that this latter date and price is based upon a poorly understood INPATHIQUE pattern. The first date and time however are reasonable. (Note - This is on the assumption that the DOW does not make its expected 8% correction next week - see below) <<-Doesn't matter where the pull back occurs, it still ends up at the same place (where $ and when?)??>> The WORST case I expect to see is $70+ mid June ------- I emphasied WORST case above That is the normally expected WORST case. Before I decide to buy however, I also look at the ABSOLUTE WORST case I can see in the charts. That is $50 mid June. Still an excellent return if you are in for the longer term, which we are. Therefore I consider it a buy for our portfolios. CAUTION to all: Be cautious over the next couple of days of the impact of the DOW's expected (wouldn't be the first time I was wrong) 8% pull back on the price of GIB.a We could see it struggling unfairly against the suction. As I said, the rules around this "Diamond" pattern,as INPATHIQUE has coined it, are not well defined. Instead of $35.50 on April 30, it could be $24 ($19 absolute worse case) next Thursday. Pig out time if it ever did happen, but don't hold your breath. The bottom line is that although GIB.a pulled back today as expected, it was not to what would normally be expected to be the low. That may yet come in the next couple of days. The other bottom line is that the stock will reach at a MINIMUM in the range of $50 to $70 mid June and I do not care what happens to the DOW over the next few days. It is just a buying opportunity if it does. Sorry for the qualifications, but the total variables can sometimes be too much to analyze all at once. Hence the reason for looking at the worst and expected cases. Meanwhile, I'm comfortable enough to have a half position (August calls), and am keeping enough powder dry to take advantage if the God's smile and really do drive the price down next week. If you have other questions, I will try to answer them. Greg