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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (11141)	4/15/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

John, >>>> It is important to note that in an idealized Bull market the cyclical issues advance at the end of the cycle to cap off the Bull Run <<<<< Thats basicly what the old-timer told me. seeya

To: John Pitera who wrote (11141)	4/16/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

wheatfirst.com everensec.com Greg Nie For: April 16, 1999 Let's get today over with, blame whatever happens on expiration and get on to the main event next week. The momentum question will be front and center after the bulls have established the foundation for a rally over the last week or so. Despite the severe rotation exhibited the last couple of days, one must acknowledge that the tape has a firmer tone. NYSE breadth has been positive in 8 of the last 10 sessions and new highs have exceeded new lows for 5 sessions in a row. Even the two-day dump of the first quarter highfliers and winners seemed to ease up a bit late in Thursday's session. There is room to move higher near-term before pushing into some kind of an overbought. The 10-day TRIN (.87) and the 30-day TRIN (.89) are not quite to the overbought .80 level. To carry the rally significantly higher from here, the bulls are again confronted by the momentum issue. 2:1, if not 3:1, positive breadth accompanied by well-above average volume is the key. Average daily volume year-to-date for the NYSE is 796 million and 996 million for NASDAQ. Simply put, next week is the spot for the bulls to move tape action from trading try to investment demand. We would assign a low probability at the moment, but the wildly bullish scenario would be for the all of a sudden downtrodden techs to join up with the new cyclical leadership. That could get very, very interesting. Technical indicator update: ( + = positive / - = negative / o = neutral ) Price charts of the averages: (o/+) Primary volume indicator: (+) Primary breadth indicator: (o/+) 10-day TRIN: .87 (o/-) 30-day TRIN: .89 (o/-) Stocks over 10-week moving average: 50.5% (o) Stocks over 30-week moving average: 43.3% (o/+) Investor's Intelligence: (-) Bulls: 55.9% Bears: 30.5% Cumulative A/D: (-) NASDAQ volume is 25.0% ahead of NYSE volume y-t-d: (-) Mutual fund cash (Feb.): 4.7% (-) Dow Industrials are 1501 pts./16.8% above the 200-day moving average (o/+) (The 200-day + 18% calculation is at 10,575). SPX: 1322.85