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Technology Stocks : RealNetworks (NASDAQ:RNWK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond who wrote (2684)	4/20/1999 6:19:00 PM
From: Raymond	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5843

Bear comments ... I think those who think the stock will go over 200 tomorrow are carried too far away. I see the following reasons why the stock will fall tomorrow: 1. Beat by only 1c. RNWK beat by 2~3 cents consistently before. This time the stock went up 52 (my god, doesn't it look like a misprint?) in anticipation of blowout earnings. Can beat-by-1c carry the momemtum further? Unlikely. 2. Sell-on-news effect. The market is so filled with greed that everybody is betting on news instead of fundamentals. Once the news is out, everyone wants out because nothing is seen to drive the stock in the near future. There has not been an exception for internet stocks this quarter. In fact, there is really no fundamentals here. What difference does it make to a 6B-market-cap company whethere they earn a million or lose 2 million? 3. Microsoft's earnings report is short of one that could drive the entire market up. 4. The only upside news today was the split. This zero-sum game works magically when the market in good mood. It won't work that well this time, at least the magic won't last long. That said, I still think the stock may open higher tomorrow, but I don't think any gain can hold until close. My guess is the stock will fall 20-40 points. Just my .02. Bought puts today 10 minutes before close and went out to lunch. Really surprised to see where it closed. I'm a very greedy gambler, but I'm still surprised to see the level of greed shown in this stocks. Raymond