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To: KeepItSimple who wrote (50687)4/15/1999 8:27:00 PM
From: fedhead  Respond to of 164684
 
Whats going to fix this is a genuine grinding bear market like
that seen in 1974 where stocks lost over 50 % of their values. That
is what it is going to take to flush out all this instant trading at the click of a mouse. I bet ownership in equities declined a lot after
the 1974 bear market.However I don't see that happening. Too many
positives for that to happen. If LTCM had been allowed to fail we might have seen that scenario.

Anindo



To: KeepItSimple who wrote (50687)4/15/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: GST  Respond to of 164684
 
I agree there is growing systemic risk. All those who say 'I won't sell', will indeed sell. And it will destroy the finances of millions of families. The future lies with nets and their offspring, and these companies will be found to be worth billions of dollars in the long-term, but not tens or hundreds of billions as they are currently priced. The volume is picking up and the on-line business is raising the ante -- I don't want to count on it, but the market is sure starting to boil over.



To: KeepItSimple who wrote (50687)4/15/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: Greater Fool  Respond to of 164684
 
... Finally, the bridge started twisting back and forth violently, in a whipsaw fasion, and snapped apart.

...

Instant day-trading by the masses is causing our equity markets to "break" on a fundamental level

...


The markets aren't resonators, they are chaotic systems. Resonators break, chaotic systems by and large don't.

Any upward price movement is damped, because there is a finite amount of money available to invest in that price movement. Declines in prices also slow and come to a stop at a new level: the pessimists sell and leave, and as the price drops, new buyers are attracted.

Market breakdown can occur on the buying side as well as on the selling side, which is why the stocks in this sector sometimes rise at incredible rates. Anyway, if this sector implodes, so what? A bunch of day traders lose their money and go back to their jobs. It's not like the economy suddenly stops when Yahoo goes to $5 a share.

Don't go looking for a meltdown, look for a plateau followed by a long and slow decline.



To: KeepItSimple who wrote (50687)4/16/1999 9:08:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Ever see that famous film of the giant suspension bridge that started to oscillate in the
breeze? Cars kept driving across it all day. Then the wind picked up, and the harmonics
of the motion fed on itself. Finally, the bridge started twisting back and forth violently,
in a whipsaw fasion, and snapped apart.


Is there a connection here. Physics? Weather? What?

Glenn