*Wireless Markets and Strategies in China (via qcom thread)
China is currently one of the world's fastest growing telecoms markets, ranking third
worldwide in wireless telecoms consumption. With a population of 1.2 billion and a
current mobile subscribership of 12 million, its mobile teledensity is less than 1%; but
nearly 500,000 new cellular subscribers are added each month, giving China the
potential for remarkable wireless growth. New operators China Unicom and China
Great Wall are pressing ahead with buildup of their mobile networks, driving wireless
demand to an all-time high China is also actively looking at wireless access to satisfy
overwhelming demand and to meet a state-mandated goal of 10% fixed-line teledensity
by 1999. The Chinese telecoms market is expected to undergo dynamic changes and
enjoy staggering growth over the 1997-2002 period. Don't miss out!
WIRELESS MARKETS AND STRATEGIES IN CHINA, a new report from
Pyramid Research, provides detailed analysis of wireless services and equipment
markets in China.This comprehensive report provides insight into:
How the recent emergence of China's third operator, China Great Wall, may affect the
wireless services market, including tariffs, traffic growth, revenues and new services;
What effects the restructuring of the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunica-tions (MPT)
and the potential privatisa-tion of the MPT's operating arm, China Telecom, may have
on the wireless market as a whole;
How the rise of digital standards such as GSM and CDMA may impact TACS
networks;
How the growth in private operators and the trend toward consolidation is influencing
China's paging market;
The strategies of China United Telecom (Unicom) as it struggles to compete with China
Telecom, including marketing strategy and tariffs, network evolution and competitive
analysis;
What effects the expected rollout of WLL may have on the strategies of vendors such
as Motorola and Ericsson, and of operators such as China Telecom, Unicom and China
Great Wall;
How the increase in locally manufactured equipment will affect the strategies of global
players such as Nokia, NORTEL, Siemens, Lucent, Alcatel and others, including
market positioning, product strategy, geographi-cal concentration and competitive
advantages.
In addition, WIRELESS MARKETS AND STRATEGIES IN CHINA comes
complete with profiles of the most important operators and vendors in the country. The
report also provides a comprehensive database of forecasts to 2002 broken out by
province1 including:
Subscriber forecasts for cellular, PCS, wireless access, and paging by service sector
and standard;
Future growth potential in the equip-ment market based on separate pricing for cellular
and PCS infrastructure by standard and handsets by standard;
Service revenue forecasts for cellular, PCS, and paging based on thorough analysis of
tariffs and useage trends (historic and future) and their effects on average recurring
revenue per subscriber;
Forecasts for cellular and PCS capacity installed by standard.
Looking Towards a More Open and Competitive Market
Changes in China's regulatory policy have put an end to the Ministry of Posts and
Telecommunications (MPT) monopoly on telecoms services. China United Telecom
(Unicorn) entered the telecoms market as China's second operator in 1994, backed by
the three powerful Ministries of Electronics, Power, and Railway.
Since then, it has built mobile networks in 48 cities, 25 of which are already in
operation. With a current cellular subscribership of less than 300,000, Unicorn still has a
long way to go if it wants to meet its target of 3 million mobile phone users (or 20% of
the national market) by the year 2000.
Further, the initial euphoria surrounding Unicom's entry has worn off, as has the
enthusiasm of many foreign telecoms players who once thought Unicom would be their
vehicle for access into China's tightly-controlled but highly profitable telecoms market.
Although Unicorn's progress has been slower than expected, its entrance into the
market has brought forth limited compe-tition and improvements in the provision of
mobile services, and has exerted downward pressure on the pricing of mobile services
and equipment.
Wireless Markets and Strategies in China will look in depth into how Unicorn is faring
and how it plans to make a dent in a market dominated by China Telecom, the
operating arm of the MPT.
A third operator, China Telecom Great Wall (Great Wall) recently entered China's
cellu-lar arena, adding another boost to competition. It is backed by the MPT and
CESEC, the operating arm of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Great Wall uses excess spectrum in the 800 MHz cellular band and is putting this
spectrum to good use by partnering with NIPT, overcoming regulations that pro-hibit
the PLA from offering commercial services with its available frequencies.
Great Wall is expected to play a significant role in the telecoms scene with the
commercial rollout of CDMA networks in the near future. Recently, it completed the
installation of China's first CDMA network in Beijing with an initial capacity of 43,000.
Cellular Services Enjoy Phenomenal Growth
China's cellular market experienced a growth of 120% from 1993-1996. According to
Pyramid Research, cellular penetration rates in China were 0.6% in 1996, and they are
expected to more than triple by 2002.
The majority of cellular users in China are on the TACS network, but GSM services
have enjoyed staggering growth in the last two years.
With the VACS networks running at close to full capacity, more subscribers are turning
to the GSM network. GSM subscriber growth has nearly tripled each year since 1995.
In the next few years, GSM is expected to overtake TACS as the dominant cellular
standard in China.
It comes as little surprise that the CDMA standard is also attracting interest. Among
many things, it boasts high capacity and superior call quality and is a solution to China's
phenomenal demand for cellular services.
It is believed that CDMA will become a serious alternative to GSM. Besides CDMA,
trials of the DCS-1800 standards are also taking place in various parts of China. The
commercial rollout of these alternative standards will serve to add a new dimension to
China's cellular market.
Part of the growth in cellular demand is fueled by the interconnection of networks
between cities and provinces. Vendors have been interconnecting their networks to
enable roaming to take place and providing greater convenience to cellular users.
The entry of new operators into the cellular market and the opening of the retail market
for mobile terminal equipment have caused a massive drop in both services and
termi-nal equipment markets, pushing already excessive demands to new heights. Riding
on the wave of this huge demand are equipment suppliers such as Ericsson Motorola
and Nokia, who combined have a 95% share of the handset market.
China Warming Up to Wireless Access
The MPT is seriously considering adopting the wireless local loop (WLL) systems as a
solution to meet the ambitious main line projections set forth in its current five-year plan.
A series of WLL trials are near conclu-sion and a commercial rollout is expected in
1998. By 2002, China 's installed base of WLL subscribers is expected to be one of the
largest in the world.
Major equipment manufacturers like Motorola Ericsson and NORTEL have been
pushing their WLL products into China aggressively but have yet to make a signifi-cant
impact on the market. On the other hand, small WLL vendors have been gaining
strength and making inroads through local ventures and partnerships.
China's Booming Paging Market Maintains Steady Position
On the paging front, China has the biggest market in the world. The number of paging
subscribers stood at 38 million at the end of 1996.
Since the introduction of competition in 1991, the paging market has become
increasingly saturated with the entry of numerous private paging operators who want to
share in the profits of a market dominated by the MPT. Despite competition from the
cellular sector, paging is expected to hold its ground and continue to enjoy significant
growth.
Provincial PTAs Playing Major Role
China's provinces and municipalities have been taking on increased responsibilities for
networks and are establishing relationships with foreign operators and vendors
independently of the MPT.
In the face of increased competition, the local Posts and Telecommunications
Authorities (PTAs) are expected to operate with even greater independence from the
MPT - opening up vast opportunities for foreign manufacturers and operators to tap into
the largest market in the world
Project Scope and Methodology
Wireless Markets and Strategies in China is a culmination of research activities spanning
more than a year. The report combines a top-down analytical view of these markets
with a bottom-up, nuts-and-bolts approach.
Our top-down analysis considers government and private sector spending plans,
regulatory and technology trends, penetration levels, pop-ulation and GNP growth,
competitive analysis, and other demand and supply components.
Our bottom-up analysis draws largely from in-country sources, building our database on
a network-by-network basis. For the country covered in this report, extensive data was
compiled on subscriber uptake, installations, unit shipments, contracts, orders, supplier
data, pricing, local production data, tariffs, unit projections, and more. This research is
detailed in our comprehensive country profiles.
For this report, Pyramid Research conducted hundreds of in-person and telephone
inter-views with government and private operators, including local and foreign consortia
partners, foreign equipment suppliers, local manufactur-ers and distributors, and
affiliates and sales rep-resentatives of foreign suppliers. Our primary research involved
contacts in the country pro-filed in the report, and in many cases, dozens of interviews in
this country.
The findings of the report are grounded almost entirely on primary research. Secondary
sources for background research - including the ITU, World Bank, regional
development banks, United Nations, U.S. government sources, and several other
governmental ad multilateral information Sources - were also consulted.
Wireless Markets and Strategies in China
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Price : US $ 2,850 (Hard Copy Only)
: US $ 3,500 (Hard Copy + CD-ROM)
Pub Time : March 1998
Pages : 200 Pages
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