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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (4038)	4/16/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17770

James, Yes Germany is one of the ultimate beneficiaries of what is going on in the Balkans IMO. Also the Communists and Nationalists (Left and center of Russian political spectrum) benefit greatly from what's going on. Today as in the last few days there has been a great power struggle in Russia between the Duma which is dominated by the Communists and Nationalists and Yeltsin who still holds out some hope of accomodation with the West. Watch what goes on there closely. Sales agents for Rozvoorouzhennie, Russia's largest arms maker accompnied Primakov to Belgrade on his visit last week. Roz is ready to supply Yugoslavia immediately with thermal night vision equipment which would upgrade Yugslavia's nightime surface-to-air capabilities. Also Yugoslavia and Israel are talking arms deals too. My concern is that the NATO bombing campaign has been so savage and so complete that with Serbia in ruins, that the Albanian minority in Macedonia will make a move for autonomy next. That will draw Bulgaria, Greece, and Turkey into the fight then sometime in the next year or two. I personally would recommend negotiations and economic incentives, embargoes to achieve aims in the Balkans. NATO airstrikes are tilting the balance of power in the Balkans to the extent it probably means additional warfare and fighting will continue for years to come which will also involve NATO.... The Serbia-Israel connection ISRAEL has received an urgent Serbian request for military supplies, according to FOREIGN REPORT's Israeli sources. The Serbian government, through a senior Israeli diplomat, has presented its shopping list of military equipment, medicines and credit. The Israeli response is not known. Military ties between the Israelis and the Serb regime led by Slobodan Milosevic started in 1992 when a delegation from the Israeli defence ministry arrived in Belgrade, the Serbian capital, to try to sell arms to Serbia. According to the report from our sources, which is unconfirmed, a deal was eventually done for the supply of a large quantity of shells. The co-operation became closer. About two months ago, some Serbian MiG-21 fighters - an old type but reliable - were flown to Israel. At an air base, Israeli experts examined the possibility of upgrading the MiGs by modernising their electronics and weapons. Avionics experts said the MiGs were too old and suggested that the Serbians buy new models. The MiG's were flown home. Arm the enemy? The Israel-Serbia Connection is bound to be frowned upon by the United States; it has also been criticised by an Israeli parliamentary committee. Its members pointed to reports that until 1992 Serbia was the main training location for the Palestinians. Two Israeli groups support Serbia. One is the Serbian-Israeli Friendship Group, which regards Serbia's opposition to Hitler during the second world war as heroic. The other is the influential arms industry which, in a shrinking market, is fighting for its survival. Since most of the Serbian army is equipped with Russian-made weapons, with which the Israelis are familiar, this looks like a good opportunity. Serbia also has some T-60 tanks in need of updating. The government need not be involved. Contacts between the two countries have been made through private businessmen. One of them is Jerusalem-based. Our sources say the Israelis are weighing the urgent Serbian request for assistance. On one hand, the Americans and Europeans would be angry. On the other hand, as our source says, the Israelis think they can get away with anything as far as the United States government is concerned. Our prediction: Israel will respond with a substantial proposal, but only after the crisis is over. Foreign Repor