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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: KY who wrote (21731)4/16/1999 5:34:00 PM
From: FJB  Respond to of 25960
 
What is more of a threat to CYMI's future?

(1) Current group of competitors and their ability to steal market share or,
(2) new post-optical technologies on the horizon


The answer is 3)the health of the semiconductor industry. We really need the often predicted DRAM shortage in 2000 to materialize.




To: KY who wrote (21731)4/16/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25960
 
KY,

Re:if the above threats are PERCEIVED to be threats by analysts, that's enough for me to qualify it as a threat

You verbalized my greatest fear in holding this stock. The fact that post-optical lithography may be implemented sooner than expected is a great concern of mine. The SEMI roapmap has moved up to the point where less than a decade from now we should see the post-optical generation. The fact that it will be very difficult to implement new processes accross entire lines is beside the point; it is still lingering in the background and therefore should be viewed as a threat which will never go away. In fact the threat will increase over time.

Regardless, I still see huge potential in this stock over the coming decade, and for better or worse, I am holding it for at least another 3-4 years.


BK



To: KY who wrote (21731)4/16/1999 7:16:00 PM
From: Ginko  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
I often wonder myself if analysts use a 60-month horizon and not a 12 month one to forecast CYMI's eps - when competition and/or new technologies are more of a plausible threat. JMHO.

Let's hope A&A have a gangbusters CC after 4/26 earnings and turn some of these "deer-caught-in-the-headlight" analysts a bit more bullish!