To: Sb2k who wrote (1454 ) 4/17/1999 3:46:00 PM From: BomboochaBoy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2902
I presently have equal amounts of AOL and DCLK-and I am considering some additional purchases. Any thoughts on which one to purchase. ... I do not want to purchase both. This is a truly titillating dilemma. A "good" problem. Like you, I own AOL and DCLK. I'm looking at it like this. 1. Performance. AOL slowed down/consolidated AS ALWAYS after a major run-up. Growth performance has been phenomenal; AOL has tripled since December. Potential still unlimited. Doubleclick's performance has been better in the very near-term; DCLK has doubled in less than two months. Potential still unlimited. One plus for AOL is the possibility that it has bottomed out. AOL is a long way from its high of 175. To me, this is a buying opportunity in the 130-150 range. DCLK has corrected with the rest of the sector, but had a nice boost Friday and is off its near-term low. Another split announcement by either company is not expected in the near term, as well. I do think there will be splits by both toward the end of summer, however. Edge: Tie. 2. Accumulation. AOL is accumulated by S&P Index Funds. DoubleClick is at the whim of retail buyers and is probably being bought up by funds, but nothing like AOL. Edge: AOL. 3. The future. Realistically, where do you see AOL and DCLK in one year and five years from now? It is difficult to say with certainty for some investors, but imho, AOL has a history of outstanding execution thanks to the management team headed by Steve Case. DCLK is the leader in an emerging field and will have to prove its ability to expand and grow market share, let alone maintain it. I like D-Click's chances, though. Edge: AOL, by a moderate margin. 4. Time frame. If you do not intend to hold your shares for up to a year, you are relying partly on momentum for a fast profit. In that case, all points mentioned above are moot. DCLK has a much, much smaller float and is about to announce what are expected to be very positive earnings. There is more room to grow in stock price, anyway, in DCLK, for the near term. Long term? I find it hard to find a better pick than AOL. Again, superior management usually wins again and again. Edge: AOL by a hair. Finally, Sb2k, I do not follow your line of reasoning about not purchasing more of both. If you see risk in owning both AOL and DCLK, why would owning just one of them minimize such risk? Splitting your funds between the two would minimize the risk. Of course, there's always the option of having ZERO risk by staying in cash or bonds. Or using only half of your available funds to buy AOL or DCLK, but not both. The tech summer slowdown could have an effect on leaders like AOL or DCLK, but I am not planning to sell. It's a good problem, SB. BTW, my AOL holding is roughly double that of my DCLK. Aloha, Paul