Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kathyh who wrote (28835)	4/18/1999 11:50:00 AM
From: IEarnedIt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

Couldn't resist your comment on analysts. Have found myself that if I watch Upgrades that it is an easy way to jump in for the short pop up and get out. Just the reverse of your "downgrade" theory in that I see the "upgrade" as the way of them wanting to dump, especially the "Strong Buy" ones. I've come to think of some of them as the original "pump and dumpers" JD

To: kathyh who wrote (28835)	4/18/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: Jack Colton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

I am over 1800 messages behind... Oh my goodness... What has happened in the last two weeks? Are we having a get together? Dawg, while heading across I-20 last night, and looping on 459, I almost went to Gadsden instead of back to Atlanta.... I got in at 3:15am after driving 15 1/2 hours.... Sleepy Jack

To: kathyh who wrote (28835)	4/18/1999 12:21:00 PM
From: MARK C.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

Morning Kathy, you wrote "I am still new at this as you know, but I am starting to regard analyst downgrades as buy signals... tells me they want to buy more at a lower price... is that your view, too, or am I becoming overly cynical, and too hard on the dear analysts." In my opinion there are only three reasons for analysts to exist. #1 to give an unbiased assessment of the future of a company based on available data and experience so that investors can make an educated investment decision. #2 To drive share prices up #3 to drive share prices down. I believe #1 is the very very rare exception and that most (almost all) make their recommendations to achieve #2 and #3. Analysts are not paid by the general public but by the firms they work for. So why are they so anxious to get their views presented to the masses (you and me through CNBC, IBD, Business week, ect ect)? I believe being cynical is the way to go. The trouble is that analysts recommendations very often have a real impact on a share price whether they are correct or not so you just can't ignore them. You are right that many times a downgrade by a firm can be an excellent entry point for a stock, it happens often. By the same token many upgrades have been a perfect time to sell, yet the bottom line is you can't use them as a sole means to invest or sell. You must use your OWN knowledge of a company and your own experience to make those decisions. In ending I guess I would compare analysts to a tool. For example, I can use a hammer to pound in a nail, to pry out a nail or to just bend the nail over. Brokerage firms can use their analysts as tools also, to increase buying pressure, induce selling pressure or to just slow down either one. And always watch the age of the analyst making the call. I see way to many Big Calls being made by the youngest analysts in a firm. If this is such a terrific call then why isn't one of the firms senior analysts making it? Now that I have totally avoided directly answering your question I will say there is no easy answer. But these are some of the things I think when I see an analyst upgrade or downgrade a stock.jmho, MarkC

To: kathyh who wrote (28835)	4/18/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: Waldeen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

Hi Kathy! really nice post by Doug on analysts, definitely institutions 'look' as if they were trying to get us out of IDTC so they could get in. But the problem is that we (this thread) are collectively not so ignorant as the analysts think and have gotten in early enough to benefit from their buying. In my and others opinion, this is why we have the current backlash against daytraders as they hate being beat at their own game. IMO would also tie this to how this thread has been handling the recent downgrades and analysts recommendations in the PC industry. My personal feeling is that they are trying to create a buying opportunity for themselves by lumping Dell and Intel in with the Compaq trend. Ignoring that these two market leaders are in fact taking market share away from the like of Compaq (in Dell's case) and 3Com (in Intel's case) IMO; and that this quarter is traditionally slow for PC products. The old "PC shipments are slowing down" routine this time of year is getting too blatant for me!! Traditionally, this is a pattern at this time of year and not necessarily a trend! Compaq's management problem, see Tim's very relevant post Message 8992471 certainly could be interpreted to say that even Compaq views their problems as a matter of poor execution by top management, not to "PCs shipments trending down". Long post...it is just that when you see posts like this techstocks.com you have to smile! Glenn's been all over Dell too, so that goes almost without saying. Certainly I also am trading under the premise that internet appliances will not take away from Intel, Message 8988630 In fact, Intel will likely benefit as people have never realized that it was the StongArm processors Intel wanted and got from Digital, not the Alpha: marketwatch.newsalert.com And with Intel trading post-split as of Monday, I am personally more than cynical of the recent analyst comments on it. Look back and see what would happen if all you did was add every time Intel split: quicken.com Perhaps buying on the date of the split would have not been optimal, i.e. early? But the split has always seemed to indicate readiness for the stock to move up a level... teens to 40s, 40s to 60s, 60s to ? Hope this is of some help to you. I would certainly be interested in your thoughts on Watley when you open an account there? As I am leaning that way, hopefully soon after the FORE buyout :-) Walden