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To: John Graybill who wrote (45160)	4/19/1999 10:59:00 PM
From: Land_Lubber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

MU rally from 41.5 did not start until 1549 on Monday, here is the volume at the START of each minute, and the approx. volume in SHARES for the preceding 60 seconds: time price approx. volume preceding 60 seconds 1549 41.5 32,000 1550 41.875 14,000 1551 41.875 8,000 1552 42.0625 10,000 1553 42.125 38,000 1554 42.1875 3,000 1555 42.3125 4,000 1556 42.625 31,000 1557 42.625 32,000 1558 42.9375 18,000 1559 43 25,000 So you see, the first $1.5 and the first 10 minutes of this rally was on EXTREMELY THIN volume. MU had been flat at 41.5 for about 4 minutes. That's why I say it started with short covering, especially day traders. Then buy-to-cover stops were quickly taken out. Actually, for 5 of the first 6 minutes of the "rally", volume was lower than in any of the 4 1-minute periods preceding the rally, when the price was flat Land_Lubber

To: John Graybill who wrote (45160)	4/20/1999 10:55:00 PM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

A few tidbits from the chart: 1) Draw a line connecting the highs of 75 7/16 on 2/24 and 54.625 on 4/7. That's an average drop of 0.718 per day (29 sessions), and we are in the neighborhood of a third touch every day. Today's value (10 sessions after 4/7) was 47.45, tomorrow is 46.73, Thursday is 46.01, Friday is 45.30. There's a little wiggle room here, but not much. Note that both of the points were the result of a very deliberate and measured run, as I mentioned at the time. 2) 200-DMA is 46.33 or so (just eyeballing) and isn't changing much day-to-day. We broke below it Monday and have spent the week below it. We actually touched it once or twice since. I'm calling that a break and a re-test. We'd need to spend a day above it for me to begin to think we're going up rather than down at this point. 3) 20-DMA is about 47.25 today (eyeballing again) and dropping about 1/2 point a day. DMA's crossing each other is always good for a lot of laughs -- the 20 and 50 crossed on March 8 at 62 or so and we broke 50 within five sessions. So we have lots of things falling into place chart-wise. Never mind earnings from MSFT, CPQ, IBM, et al, but they are very conveniently available as an excuse/scapegoat for what this chart action portends. Wednesday-into-Thursday looks like the day for a fake spike to 46 and change and then WHAMMO! by Friday. IMO, of course. First touch of (1) gets me short via May 45 puts. As always, my predictions, when expressed as market bets, are always covered by the CBOE, so after-the-fact jeering is superfluous and will be ignored. (Noted futures trader Dan Akroyd offers an observation: ftp://ftp.con.wesleyan.edu/pub/sounds/movies/tradingplaces/tradpl23.wav )