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To: Alex who wrote (32238)	4/20/1999 5:22:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116762

Would be "interesting" to see how they would rebuild Balkans, Russia and US own military all at the same time...Nickel looks particularly good..:)

To: Alex who wrote (32238)	4/20/1999 5:39:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

FX IN EUROPE-Conflicting pressures tie dollar down LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - A series of conflicting economic and political pressures kept the dollar locked in a narrow range against the euro and yen on Tuesday. Propping the dollar during the session was the Monday admission by European Central Bank head Wim Duisenberg that policy towards the euro was for now one of ''neglect.'' Against the yen Japanese verbal intervention capped the U.S. unit. ''This afternoon the enormous trade deficit had the initial knee-jerk negative effect on the dollar. But trade reflects past economic divergence,'' said Peter von Maydell, currency strategist at CSFB. ''The impact was short-lived.'' And while the German IFO survey disappointed and provoked a lower euro, analysts said the rise in the West German business climate index for the first time in nine months would be a future positive. ''The first reaction to the IFO was a euro sell-off, but with it we saw the first signs of Spring,'' von Maydell said. Also supporting euro/dollar was profit-taking on short positions taken on as concern about a prolonged conflict in the Balkan region escalated earlier this week. By 1435 GMT, the euro was quoted at $1.0665/69 from a lifetime trough of $1.0584 set in late Monday trade. But further out analysts believe the euro will continue to come under pressure and target parity. ''Euro weakness is from a combination of factors. In the short term is the suggestion the ECB doesn't mind too much where the euro is,'' said Graham Cocks, manager of treasury sales at Mellon Bank in London. Echoing Duisenberg, Bundesbank council member Ernst Welteke said earlier on Tuesday the present level of the euro against the dollar was not a cause for concern. ''In the medium term is Kosovo. People thought it would be over quickly, but the hole is getting deeper,'' Cocks said. As regards the NATO/Yugoslavia conflict, analysts said the longer it goes on the worse the impact on euro-zone budgets. ''The long term factor is the economic imbalance between Europe and the United States. There are no strong signs European growth is going to turn up and U.S. growth is going to turn down,'' Cocks said. Against the yen a lower dollar is possible before a recovery takes place, analysts said. At 1502 GMT dollar/yen was at 118.20/30 after trading in a range on Tuesday of between 117.55 and 118.33. In late Europe trade on Monday it stood at 117.85/90. ''Verbal intervention has not really helped the dollar/yen, it looks as if it wants to go lower,'' said Cocks. Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said overnight he agreed with top financial diplomat Eisuke Sakakibara that a premature and excessive yen rise was undesirable. Traders said there were some suggestions that Kampo, a quasi-government body was supporting dollar/yen. ''That's normally the second step. If it fails they must decide what they want to do and whether or not they want to get the guns out,'' said Cocks referring to the possibility of actual intervention by the Bank of Japan. Elsewhere traders cited euro/Swiss franc buying after comments by Swiss National Bank board member Bruno Gehrig. ''Gehrig provoked some euro/Swiss franc buying which assisted the euro to maintain its equilibrium against the dollar,'' a trader said. Gehrig said any overvaluation of the Swiss franc might occasionally be a problem but did not pose any major difficulties for the Swiss economy. He also said the volumes of Swiss franc ''carry trades'' -- borrowing cheap francs to fund higher yielding positions -- were small and not having an impact on the franc. ''There are many people, hedge funds included, who are still switching from yen carry trades to Swiss franc carry trades,'' the trader said. By 1520 GMT, euro/Swiss franc was at 1.6014/18 little changed from late Monday. Swiss franc/yen was just above the session and Monday lows around 78.00, near levels last seen on Januray 12. biz.yahoo.com