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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (21758)	4/20/1999 10:06:00 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

What concerns me is that booking have gone over the billion mark for few months, but shipments are not increasing markedly Zeev, with all due respect, this is not DELL or even SANM "turns" business. It takes a while to build and ship these large machines. Shipments should be headed up shortly. Jay

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (21758)	4/20/1999 10:15:00 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

booking in the last six month have exceeded shipments by a mere $150 MM, which gives us an average BTB for the last six months of 102.8, This is exactly what you would expect to see in a "U" shaped recovery. Headed downward into the U, shipments greater than bookings, as bookings taper off (taper is an understatement). Then coming out of the U, bookings accelerate faster than they can build and ship them. It all averages out to 1. However, given the dearth of capital equipment spending over the last year, bookings are going to increase for some time. Cymer will particularly benefit, as everyone will be moving to their technology. Jay

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (21758)	4/21/1999 2:49:00 AM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, RE<<Are we heading into another cyclical downturn already?>> It is very possible. The last peak (in the stocks) was about 14 months after the previous peak. This is consistent with the pattern of last three cycles. This is the main reason I have not got back into CYMI (or any other semi equip stock). I guess I am a burnt victim who is afraid of the fire. Pressure in the DRAM pricing as well as projected over capacity in the CPU market are also of concern. If PC market does not pick up, we have seen the peak of another cycle already. Neither AMD or Intel are planning any more fabs and NSM might be exiting the business altogether. We'll see. Mani