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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (11621)	4/21/1999 12:31:00 AM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, A better read (or side of the fence) would be to have called for a rise into April, but to have alerted (cautioned) folks to the strong possibility of at least a medium-term topping process starting in April and climaxing around the 15th. You can only make that statement if you believe that statement to be true. When you say medium-term topping process exactly what time frame are you talking about. Do you see a market decline from these levels? How much of this recent gained will be retraced? Do you believe the top is in already in? My own read on the market here is that each index (from our October bottom) has literally danced to a different drummer. Initially, the NAZ powered ahead leaving all the other indexes behind. Because of that a correction-consolidation for those stocks was necessary to digest those gains. In the meantime the DOW has moved independent of the other avgs. Months ago I said on this thread that when the DOW broke through its consolidating area on the chart is SHOULD do so in a decisive way ending the (consolidating) struggle between the bulls and the bears. The last two weeks alone we have seen such a move. So have we witnessed a top or a much needed retracement from what has to be a record setting two week advance. Let's also not forget about the trannies which have also powered ahead through some major congestion on the charts. So I am not ready to say that this top is in. Look at the chart for GM or FDX or even RNWK which has been all over the map as of late. Do those patterns look like prices will be breaking up or down here? Right now I think stocks are positioned to at least challenge much of the gains they have given up as of late. With many stocks reversing on at least a daily basis says that it is still too early to say the top is in. I think if prices are able to stabilize here at these levels without much more downside action, many will indeed be surprised by the direction in which prices move in the coming weeks. Unfortunately for us the market is going to make us wait to see how things play out. Regards SO