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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (4892)	4/21/1999 11:21:00 AM
From: Stormweaver	Respond to of 17770

Good read. I agree, Declare War or Cease the Bombing. As stated this is a debatable undertaking ... as a result it should have been debated in the congress first.

To: Les H who wrote (4892)	4/21/1999 11:44:00 AM
From: Jacalyn Deaner	Respond to of 17770

Les, RE: Unconstitutional War - thanks for the post, Jacalyn

To: Les H who wrote (4892)	4/21/1999 1:44:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17770

Les, Thoughtful article. My one concern where we parallel Vietnam is in the number of Albanians fighting for the KLA. There are 2,000,000 Kosovar Albanians, or 50% men or 1,000,000 Kosovar Albanian men. Yet the KLA lists about 15,000 members. That means only 1 1/2% of the Albanian males have enlisted to fight Yugoslavia.... Those numbers are similar to the numbers of South Vietnamese males who volunteered to fight for South Vietnam... I question whether the Kosovars themselves want to carry on this fight.... Again I say stop the bombing and use $$ to build economic incentives of cooperation between Albanians and Slavs....

To: Les H who wrote (4892)	4/21/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 17770

Les, Some news on the Horn of Africa as populations maneuver for control of the Nile headwaters.... Eritrea/Ethiopia/Somalia GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE Conflict Spreads in Horn of Africa April 21, 1999 SUMMARY Somali warlords have accused Ethiopian troops of launching raids deep in Somali territory. While the allegations have been denied by the Ethiopian government, still it appears that the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is spreading by proxy, threatening to involve not only Somalia but also Sudan and even Egypt. ANALYSIS The Somali newspaper Mogadishu Times reported April 19 that Ethiopian troops have reached Bardaale in the Bay region of Somalia, northwest of Mogadishu. The newspaper charged that the Ethiopian forces had already seized many areas in the neighboring Gedo region, which borders Ethiopia and Kenya. Ethiopia denied allegations earlier this month that it had sent heavily armed forces to intervene in factional fighting in Gedo region, and will no doubt deny this deeper incursion into Somalia. However, evidence suggests that the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to spill over into neighboring states, intensifying local conflicts and threatening to destabilize the region. Somali warlords Hussein Mohamed Aideed, Ali Mahdi Mohamed, and Omar Haji Mohamed "Masale" sent a letter to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on April 11, charging that heavily armed Ethiopian forces had launched a series of attacks in Gedo region beginning April 8, and demanding that the UN Security Council take action against Addis Ababa. Copies of the letter were sent to the Arab League, the OAU, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The warlords alleged that Ethiopian forces had occupied the towns of Bulo Hawo and Dollo in Gedo region and had arrested local leaders. Ethiopian government spokeswoman Selome Tadesse called the Somali allegations "unfounded" and an attempt by "devious forces" to portray Ethiopia as an invader. She said that Ethiopia had captured a group of Somalis on the 10th or 11th near Dollo as they attempted to smuggle large amounts of explosives from multiple countries of origin into Ethiopia. However the BBC, Agence France Presse, and the Indian Ocean Newsletter all reported that Ethiopian troops had intervened in the area on behalf of one faction in a power struggle within the Somali National Front -- the faction opposed to Omar Haji Mohamed and the Mogadishu warlords. Kenya has reportedly closed its border with Somalia in the region, and the Arab League has stated its concern with the Ethiopian Army's presence within Somalia, and announced that it would ask Addis Ababa to withdraw the troops. Bulo Hawo is reportedly a stronghold of the fundamentalist rebel group Al-Ittihad Al-Islam, and Ethiopia has carried out attacks on the group several times in the past. Ethiopia's rebel Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), which has allegedly received Libyan-funded arms shipments from Eritrea, is also reportedly active in Gedo region. As we reported April 7, both Ethiopia and Eritrea are arming competing factions in Somalia in a growing proxy war [http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/040799.asp]. In addition to the list of countercharges outlined in our last report, Ethiopia has alleged that Arab doctors are tending to wounded Eritrean officers at a clinic in southern Somalia controlled by Hussein Mohamed Aideed. Ethiopia also suggested that the recent kidnapping of three people in eastern Ethiopia was carried out by the Ogaden National Liberation Front, also allegedly supported by Eritrea via Aideed in Somalia. Aideed, in turn, claimed his militia killed three Somali agents of the Ethiopian government sent to Mogadishu to abduct Oromo rebel leaders. An official at Ethiopia's embassy in Nairobi denied Aideed's allegation, calling it "a continuation of the fabrications made by certain forces in Somalia who are explicitly supported by Eritrea." While the spillover of the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict into Somalia is apparently increasing, it is not the only potentially dangerous extension of that conflict. Sudan's foreign ministry on April 19 requested a postponement of peace talks with the opposition Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), scheduled to be held April 20-25 in Nairobi, under the auspices of the IGAD. Sudan has charged the SPLA with repeatedly violating a cease fire agreement. While it was Khartoum that called off the talks, the Ethiopian-Eritrean war is having a serious impact on the peace process. Ethiopia and Eritrea are both members of the IGAD, and both have actively supported and hosted the Sudanese opposition forces. The Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict has thrown regional alliances into a flux, disrupting the Sudanese opposition, while the conflict has also undermined Ethiopia and Eritrea's contribution to IGAD's attempt at negotiation. Another emerging aspect of the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict is its potential linkage with the question of allocation of the water of the Nile. Ethiopia is the source of three quarters of the Nile's waters, while Egypt and Sudan are the river's primary consumers. Both countries have historically been able to limit Ethiopia's control of Nile water, even leaving it out of agreements on division of the resource, and both have an interest in keeping Ethiopia weak. Ethiopian media has been increasingly raising this issue, suggesting that this might be the next area in which Ethiopia will be forced to defend its sovereignty. Egypt and Sudan also have interests in dominating the Red Sea, which might be possible with an Eritrean client state. Ethiopia has alleged that Egypt is already supporting Eritrea with arms and expertise. Ethiopian newspapers have reported that light and medium arms and explosives captured from Eritrean forces were manufactured in Egypt and were payed for with Libyan or U.S. money or were donated by wealthy Egyptians. Egypt has claimed that has not armed Eritrea, and that the military equipment made its way to Eritrea through third parties. Other Eritrean reports claim that Egypt is providing Eritrea with military advise and intelligence through military experts masquerading as diplomats at Egypt's embassy in Asmara and Egyptian spies in Addis Ababa. As the world's attention is riveted on the conflict in Yugoslavia, the Eritrean-Ethiopian conflict is quietly spreading to involve a host of regional states and link a variety of preexisting and otherwise unconnected disputes. With the battle in the Democratic Republic of the Congo linking conflicts from Sudan to Angola, the spreading crisis in the Horn of Africa could contribute to a insoluble tangle of continent-wide conflict.

To: Les H who wrote (4892)	4/21/1999 9:25:00 PM
From: John Lacelle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17770

Les, I'll give you the short list of trouble that may come from Clinton's war; 1) Inflation. 2) Cost overruns and budget deficits. 3) Massive human tragedy (uncalculated). 4) Permanent establishment of "peacekeeping" troops in the Balkans. 5) A new European arms race. Nations now realize that nuclear weapons prevent attacks from NATO. 6) World War III. 7) A new Viet Nam for America. 8) The end of NATO. 9) A powerful rise of Russian Nationalism. 10) Global recession. -John