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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Schwartz who wrote (2733)	4/21/1999 9:54:00 PM
From: nick cash	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

nothing to do w/vntv. my best guess is that it's technical selling. 37 -38 has been a resistance/support area dating back to last june/july time frame. if you look @ the action in the stock over the past week, it's failed @ 37 and quickly turned down. as a result, you've got a group of investors (still) painting sebl with the erp y2k brush who just want the hell out. ton of shares changed hands today. damage was done to the stock, so the weak hands need to get worked out. i'm disappointed too, but not concerned. the company delivered the goods in earnings AND revenues. forward guidance is actually more bullish than it was 6 months ago. pre earnings estimates of .76 for fy99 are way too low. i think .87-.90 is doable. fy00 #'s could ratchet up 20%+ over the course of this year. i believe sebl is a $50-60 stock as long as the general mkt doesn't tank. of the companies i'm long in my accounts, only emc and tyc mgmts rival the credibility of sebl's in my book. sure, tom's a bit abrasive and cocky, but he knows what he's talking about, has vision and knows the market. now a question........... i have a friend who works for pega. he isn't pro pega (he's looking to leave the sinking ship) and doesn't have an axe to grind with sebl. that said, he claims that sebl has a horrible reputation with their customers and a lot of them are unhappy and just waiting for another vendor to have a reasonable solution so they can leave. this is contrary to what i've heard elsewhere but still i'd like some comments from anyone on the board who has any insight as a customer. thanks. to disclose, my accounts are long sebl (duh) and all is obviously imo only and not a recommendation....nick