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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andreas Samson who wrote (21113)	4/21/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: Curtis Frazier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

The June Put 5's are selling at 1. If the stock gaps open to the plus side hopefully the volatility premium will not keep the ask up and it'll drop a little giving people a chance to hedge or short the stock with limited downside potential in case Leland gets struck by lightening and wakes up with some sense in the short term.

To: Andreas Samson who wrote (21113)	4/21/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 23519

Andreas, Although I will not waste my time going over your post point by point, I will say this much: Your post cc analysis of Vivus sounds EXACTLY the same as it did last quarter and the quarter before that and the quarter before that. Are you also a short????

To: Andreas Samson who wrote (21113)	4/21/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

Andreas, The problem I find with yourself and others such as yourself is that I believe you were looking for the "get rich quick" news(ie domestic partner announcement or at least a Japan partner announcement). I got into Vivus as a value play after the December 1997 tank. Of course I had no idea that the FDA would fast track an erectile dysfunction drug that was a new and unique chemical whose safety profile was undetermined. And of course I would probably have just sat on the side lines had I known that Viagra was going to be the most over-hyped drug in the history of the American Press. Shows you the dangers of not owning a crystal ball. Whereas your focus is solely on the guaranteed out look on MUSE sales going out 2 quarters I am more focused on the R&D side because that is where the real future growth of Vivus can be found. MUSE/Alibra sales will do just fine as the various international markets are launched. I don't see the female SD product nor the premature ejaculation product as story stuff or fluff or hype. These IMO will be the types of products that will eventually take Vivus stock price to new all time highs. It won't happen tomorrow but I am confident that time is on my side. VLAD PS Why don't you just load the boat on some internut pie in the sky company? I doubt you will find an opportunity to get rich quick on any of the small biotech stocks.

To: Andreas Samson who wrote (21113)	4/21/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: wvalx	Respond to of 23519

<<MY COLD ANALYSIS OF THE CC: SHORT VVUS GOING FORWARD -Revenues have fallen sequentially for the sixth straight quarter.>> You're right, this was totally unexpected and wall street always looks at the past when placing a value on a stock. <<-.12 'profit' is the result of one time milestone payments, and therefore not valid in any earnings calculation. VVUS posted a one penny (LOSS) against OPEX.>> Right again, milestones were unexpected and we thought they were going to post a profit w/o them. <<-with the inventory channel filled, they will post wider losses in the upcoming two quarters.>> Again right, but they never said they were going to post a loss in the next 3 quarters. <<-OPEX will increase in the next two quarters, with 'no significant int'l revenues during 2nd and 3rd quarters.'>> <<-specifically, (in addition to R&D) MARKETING expenses will rise, which suggests that a domestic partner is nowhere in sight.>> You're right, they wouldn't even attempt to do any marketing if they had a marketing partner. <<-Spain, Italy and France will not be launched until Fall, which suggests A/Z is taking a cautious approach, and implies something less than total enthusiasm for the product. After all, it's paid for, why wait?>> You're right, launch something right before everyone goes on a holiday, that's the best time to do it. <<-reorders not expected for Germany until 4Q.>> now they are ordering only product for Germany, that's news to me. <<-'our goal for the year, is to break even, including milestone payments.' Ouch. Translation: 'Including our big 4th quarter, we will lose 24 cents a share going forward.' Obviously, PW's estimates are going to have to be cut. >> Right again, they could not post big profits at the expense of R+D, which would be much wiser. <<-OPEX was reduced primarily because 'Cost of goods sold' was down significantly, once again. At first glance, this looks good on a balance sheet, but it's a losing statistic. 'Cost of goods' is down because they are producing (read: selling) less product. On the whole, VVUS remains in the same limbo it enjoyed when it was a $2 stock November-March. Gravity will play a role now. At $5, there will be more money to be had in the next month or two going short rather than staying long. That's my call, anyway. Good luck to all longs.>> Good luck to you to.

To: Andreas Samson who wrote (21113)	4/22/1999 12:39:00 AM
From: Amots	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 23519

AS. From ICOS Bus' Summary: <<For the fiscal year ended 12/31/98, revenues totalled $110.8 million, up from $31.6 million. Net income totalled $31.3 million vs. a loss of $12 million. Revenues reflect the inclusion of a $75 million one-time license of technology fee from Lilly ICOS. Net income also reflects increased investment income. Recent Earnings Announcement For the 3 months ended 03/31/1999, revenues were 16,145; after tax earnings were -7,185. (preliminary; reported in thousands of dollars)>> One time payment are part of the bio's Bus'. The market look at the future, ICOS has one and so does VVUS. In the short term they may pull back (and that why I keep a trading portion),as always. But after learning about what in the pipeline, I have better filling about holding for the long term. Regards Amots