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Politics : Bill Clinton Scandal - SANITY CHECK -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (43476)	4/22/1999 2:46:00 AM
From: JBL	Respond to of 67261

stratfor.com April 22, 1999 Stratfor Commentary 0120 GMT, 990422 - The Montenegrin Tangle British Prime Minister Tony Blair's assertion that NATO would defend Montenegro against Serbian aggression raises some interesting questions. Obviously, NATO has been in contact with Montenegrin leaders, since Blair stated that assurances had been passed on to them. Equally obvious, since Montenegro is part of Yugoslavia, the question of how the Yugoslav Army could be committing aggression there becomes a bit murky. Propaganda and international law aside, NATO is obviously eager to see unrest in Montenegro. Unrest, even if unsuccessful, will help tie down Serbian forces. A political crisis in Montenegro that requires the extensive use of Serbian troops reduces Serb military power at least as much as the air campaign. In addition, in gaming out a ground war against Kosovo, the ability to attack through Montenegro would bring U.S. forces in Bosnia into play much more effectively than otherwise. Thus a successful uprising against the Yugoslav Second Army would be the best outcome of all for NATO. There is, however, a serious downside to all this. First, the Second Army and Belgrade have been accusing elements of the Montenegrin government of treason. Since Montenegro is very much a part of Yugoslavia, if what Prime Minister Blair is saying is true, then the charges of treason against at least some officials in Montenegro has at least plausible legal standing. This could open the door to a Serb suppression in Montenegro that would make Kosovo appear gentle. Clearly, Montenegrin officials are balancing their dislike of Belgrade's heavy hand against the likelihood of genuine NATO help. Blair's bluster aside, the example of Kosovo can't leave Montenegrin leaders with a feeling of comfort. Blair's aggressive stance could actually undermine the possibility of a rising. Secondly, NATO has taken a position for autonomy in Kosovo. No one has mentioned treating Montenegro as a separate country. Many members of NATO would be extremely uneasy about any policy that dismembers Yugoslavia. Blair's comments, coming just days before the Washington NATO summit, seems to have created a new policy for NATO by treating Montenegro as a separate nation subject to aggression. If that is the case, then NATO has clearly shifted from a policy of protecting the Albanians to a policy of both toppling Milosevic and dismembering Yugoslavia. That won't fly with much of NATO, let alone the Russians. Blair and Clinton seem to be constantly expanding NATO's mission. At some point, the danger is that the locomotive will uncouple from the train.

To: Les H who wrote (43476)	4/22/1999 7:47:00 AM
From: Daniel Schuh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67261

It's always good to call anybody you disagree with a commie. Anyway, it's less cowardly that Vaughn with his crapmeister 3rd party attack line. The Flynt line is vintage Vaughn, too. I guess now that you two are official tag team partners on the other thread, it all makes sense. Since you're familiar with the Kosovo thread, Les, how do you thing Ish's "Russian sphere of influence" line would go down there? Do you think the unit taunt would work well? Would people appreciate the local "Let's lose it for Clinton" line, or would it perhaps catch more flack there than it does among the true blue Clinton haters here?

To: Les H who wrote (43476)	4/22/1999 8:18:00 AM
From: jlallen	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 67261

Why do you really bother? Daniel is the ultimate sound and fury signifying nothing to borrow a phrase. Even his Kosovo bleat is more baloney. I have actually been on the Kosovo thread and I have stated clearly that while I think the entrance into Kosovo was flawed and wrongheaded, I believe now we must do all we can to win, win convincingly and win quickly. Others disagree and see this ill-fated campaign as hypocritical or legacy building or "wagging". Who could blame the logic of these positions (although I myself disagree) given our current "commander in chief" and the absolute disaster he refers to as a foreign policy? JLA