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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11764)	4/22/1999 8:05:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

To all, I am having problems getting onto the MDA website this morning. Basicly, my position have not changed in that we should see a dip latest Monday and could even happen as soon as today. So, besides the CLASS BUY signals earler in the week, this will be another opportunity that could be used as an entry for a short-term long position to participate in the rally into MAY. Until, the overall market, sets new highs my position will not change concerning a short-term top arriving early MAY and that an intermediate top has been set for most sectors, even if the DOW sets new intraday highs. Keep in mind that my position is that this upswing is just part of the topping process which started last week and should end by early MAY, latest early JUNE(Memorial Day). Yes it is possible that some sectors will retest their highs, but if they do not significantly break thru, then that would probably form a DOUBLE TOP, which would just be part of this TOPPING process. Again, I am not calling for the BK, just a pullback of 5-10%+. There is also the possibility that we could just see a trading range with 4%-7% swings. seeya

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11764)	4/22/1999 8:38:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

PUT/CALL ratios for april 21 CBOE tot: 0,44 individual equities: 0,34 OEX: 1,33 VIX: 24,55 ind. equ. call vol.:568,518(+68,516) put vol.:190,803(-18,068) OEX call vol.: 21,289(-2,839) put vol.: 28,396(-8,412) the CBOE total ratio and individual equ. ratio are bearish at these levels, flashing a near term danger signal. OEX options volume has all but dried up, falling sharply from the levels seen during expiration week. while this is normal when a new front month series takes over, the size of the decline in volume isn't. yesterday's action shows not much conviction one way or the other. a helpful indicator to aid with the interpretation of this phenomenon is j.bollinger's put volume indicator, which currently stands at 0,31 which is decidedly short term bearish (details on the PVI to follow in my next P/C post). due to the recent strong earnings reports (most notably ibm's) as well as very strong overseas markets (the HEX simply exploded today, FTSE and TOTAL also very firm)i expect the market to be very strong today from the outset. if that should indeed be the case, i will look for the p/c ratios to deteriorate further, maybe even to the point of 'panic buying' in calls. that would set the market up for a considerable setback, probably starting early next week. hb