To: mike smith who wrote (67 ) 4/25/1999 3:58:00 AM From: Richard Saunders Read Replies (2) | Respond to
off topic - Mike. Re: database of jr. companies. If one is willing to pay for updated qtrly. data Robb Moss has numbers compiled in crunchable spreadsheet format. He's at mossr.com
Agree with your tho't about the larger producers already pricing in higher oil/gas prices while pip-squeaks are still waiting for confirmation that oil prices are for real.
Personally no expert when it comes to picking the winners based on some of the trash that is still being held but have tried to focuss on the small (often majorly illiquid) startups with combinations of interesting mgmt. and financing startup.
At the present time there are some private situations which appear to be putting pieces together and once sustained sentiment turns again in the oilpatch for jrs. suspect some of the situations will enter public arena. Names to possibly watch for may include Integra resources, Forte Energy and Big Sky Resources. Integra's detailed a while ago on Cdn Oil thread, Big Sky appears to have some Peters&Co. funding while Forte seems to have attracted First Energy names. Forte also appears to have some decently skilled folks including geologist, Bruce Hammond and CEO Tom McKay (petroleum engineer background).
Some possible names of situations that are trading may include Key West (KWE-ase) because of the heavy cash situation, possibly Belair (BGY-ase) however there are now lots of shares o/s, and maybe Int'l. Frontier (IFR-ase) for total specultion. I have positions in the mentioned 3.
General things that are (imo) worth considering re: jrs. include mgmt. abilities, managable debt (less than 1.5 - 2.0x cashflow?), land inventory including good development prospects, light oil and sweet gas production and access to funding sources such as ARC Financial, NCE, EnerVest, R. Chaney, etc.
From purely P/CF valuation for the jrs. if a growing situation can be purchased for less than p/cf of three usually there's good upside.
Also, the fewer shares o/s the better however often the result is that the things are extremely illiquid, especially when the little'uns are out of flavour.......
A "good" stock to buy will sometimes mean having to patiently sit on a "low" bid for several or more weeks.
Appreciated the run-down you gave on CJE and apologies for being so vague above. There are also a couple of other little'uns that I'm currently trying to establish a position in and am patiently sitting and waiting for something to drop down. Those situations are purely startups with the tho't being given to mgmt. in place.
Take care.
