To: Bill Murphy who wrote (5536 ) 4/25/1999 1:07:00 PM From: m.philli Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 81019
Bill, I wonder if you could comment on or direct me to some information pertaining to the following question. If the gold market is strictly a supply/demand thing, why did the price of gold not crash when Bre-ex was at the height of it's glory? With the potential of the large amount of gold coming to market from production of their mine in Kalimantan, one would think that every announcement of the increasing millions of ounces being found, would have caused a proportional drop in price. It doesn't seem to have happened like that. Didn't gold hang right in their around 400 right up to the end! Was there a large increase in forward sales by other companies in proportion to increasing numbers coming out of Bre-ex? Did the shorters start increasing at this point in anticipation of a huge increase in supply? Why didn't the price of gold increase when Bre-ex destructed? It seems to me that it was only after Bre-ex and the subsequent crash in mining stocks that gold started its downward spiral. Is this related to the demoralization of the gold stock market, providing the opportunity to run gold down. If the market was not worried about the production coming to market from Bre-ex, then why the big worry about future sales from other large holders? If their worry ,and the subsequent drop in gold price, was caused by the Asian crash, then this should be reflected in an increase in price at the present in anticipation of Asian recovery and increasing demand as some of these countries are recovering. It just doesn't seem right to me, "unless", you and Gata are right in your assumptions about the market. Did all the big boys, sit down and say,"gee how about that Bre-ex thing, let's tell the legitimate producers to hedge forward, we're going to destroy the gold exploration business and drive all those crooks out of the market! Did anticipated Bre-ex supply have anything to do at all with the beginning of heavy short selling on the market? If so, when this supply disappeared, had they already taken short positions and just kept at it to prevent their suffering losses? What effect did Bre-ex have on the gold price drop? Or simply, did Bre-ex not enter into the picture at all.-mike