Another slightly different article on Rambus alternative.
April 26, 1999, Issue: 1157
> Section: News
>
> PC133 now 'PC' at PC OEMs
> Andrew MacLellan
> Silicon Valley- OEM interest in PC133 SDRAM has increased substantially in
> the weeks following Intel Corp.'s delay of Direct Rambus DRAM,
> particularly among desktop-PC makers, according to a number of industry
> executives.
> With demand prompting Smart Modular Technologies Inc., Unigen Corp., and
> other module makers to ramp production of PC133 DIMMs, momentum for what
> until recently had been the industry's fall-back architecture is clearly
> on the rise.
> "In general, you're getting a couple of segments looking at it, especially
> consumer, because of the delay of Rambus and a perceived price increase
> associated with that," said Dan Pleshko, director of memory and
> microprocessor corporate procurement at Compaq Computer Corp., Houston.
> Kingston Technology Co., a module maker based in Fountain Valley, Calif.,
> is producing PC133 DIMMs on a contractual basis for Toshiba Corp., which
> has also seen OEM interest grow in the weeks since Intel delayed Direct
> RDRAM.
> "We've got two of the top three PC OEMs planning to use PC133," said Kevin
> Kilbuck, manager of memory engineering at Toshiba America Electronic
> Components Inc., Irvine, Calif. "I wouldn't say they're 100% confirmed to
> be using it, but they are at least qualifying the chipset and Toshiba
> PC133 modules."
> Keith McDonald, newly appointed president of Smart Modular in Fremont,
> Calif., said calls for the architecture have been pouring in from PC OEMs
> considering PC133 for use in new desktop platforms.
> "What I know from my past is that Rambus was on the front burner and PC133
> was a back-up strategy," said McDonald, who until last month was senior
> vice president of sales and marketing for DRAM maker Samsung Semiconductor
> Inc. "Now, it's been moved to the front burner, and over the last four
> weeks, we've seen many requests for PC133 modules."
> The bulk of the demand is coming from desktop and workstation
> manufacturers, according to Scott Marx, director of sales at Unigen, a
> module maker also based in Fremont. "Even the embedded computers that are
> currently using SDRAM are moving to PC133 in the next generation."
> Though it's stolen the spotlight for now, PC133 is still viewed largely as
> an interim solution that will fill market demand only until the advent of
> Direct RDRAM, executives agreed.
> "Rambus is going to happen, it's just a question of whether the timing
> fits everyone's cycles," Pleshko said. "Then we have the millennium and
> issues associated with it, and the [Rambus] infrastructure costs. There's
> a lot to look at."
> Rambus chips offer a dramatic 1.6-Gbyte/s peak bandwidth, twice that
> available through today's PC100 SDRAM. However, technical issues have
> caused Intel to push out its Camino chipset launch to September, leaving
> the Rambus chip without a means of communicating with the host processor.
> In the meantime, many component suppliers are rushing to see how much of a
> market they can establish with PC133, a natural follow-on to the PC100
> architecture. PC133 requires little new technology compared with Rambus,
> but increases peak throughput to only 1 Gbyte/s.
> Still, because it's relatively easy to manufacture, suppliers are hoping
> to build up the market, a tactic that could undercut initial demand for
> Direct RDRAM, industry executives said.
> "I previously didn't think PC133 was very serious for the future,"
> McDonald said. "How it looks to me now is that PC133 could be a big speed
> bump for Rambus."
> Unimpressed with PC133's modest performance increase-and concerned that
> support for it could steer the industry away from the Rambus memory
> path-Intel has steadfastly refused to endorse the alternative interface.
> This is significant because Intel owned 80% of the chipset market in 1998,
> according to Mercury Research Corp., Scottsdale, Ariz. While other chipset
> manufacturers-most notably Via Technologies Inc. and Reliance Computer-are
> rolling out their own PC133-compatible chipsets, the absence of an
> Intel-branded part will certainly restrict supply, and sends a cautionary
> message to conservative PC vendors.
> Calling PC133 SDRAM "a distraction," Avo Kanadjian, vice president of
> memory marketing at Samsung Semiconductor, San Jose, said the lack of
> chipset support will limit the memory to server applications. "I don't
> expect any excitement to be created with another synchronous DRAM [PC]
> machine," he said. "I do expect excitement with a Rambus machine."
> Kanadjian said Samsung has run its Direct RDRAM through an Intel-sponsored
> validation program and is beginning customer qualification of volume
> production wafers. Samsung expects to begin manufacturing chips 10 to 12
> weeks following the qualification process, during which initial production
> output levels are determined.
> Despite Direct RDRAM's schedule slip, Samsung sees a market for about 40
> million 128-Mbit Rambus units in 1999, and said it has the capacity to
> meet that entire demand. The last several weeks have resulted in all
> facets of the Rambus supply chain coming together, Kanadjian noted, a
> departure from the industry's previous, more insular development strategy.
> "Clearly, we have a full understanding of everybody's schedule, and we're
> confident that we will keep to schedule, provided that everyone executes
> according to plan," he said. "The last time, we were in the dark and were
> only concerned with our own performance. ... This time around we're very
> much synchronized with the other suppliers, and we're kept very much in
> the process of how our OEMs are doing."
> Most industry analysts agree that Rambus is an inevitability because of
> its sheer performance and narrow, 16-bit bus. And companies such as
> Samsung, which have committed to an early and sustained Rambus ramp, have
> little choice but to follow through with their manufacturing plans.
> However, other DRAM makers, reciting the mantra of "evolution not
> revolution," believe the industry may be better off supporting more
> incremental performance advances. Appearing at a recent PC133 forum that
> Via Technologies sponsored in Taiwan, Micron Technology, Infineon
> Technology (formerly Siemens Semiconductors), and Hyundai Electronics
> Industries outlined their SDRAM roadmaps, which include double-data-rate
> SDRAM and PC133.
> By the end of the year, the groundswell of support for PC133 may prove to
> be overstated. But in the quest for product differentiation, PC makers
> will continue casting about for a 1999 market performer, hedging their
> bets in the event Rambus misses its revised third-quarter launch date.
> "It's all about the race for benchmarks," McDonald said
>
> Rob Schwartz
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