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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (43232)	4/26/1999 9:22:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Near term vs. short term... Doug - you are preaching to the choir - ''recovery-wise''. My point is misunderstood here. EVERYONE in the world - including the Bears & Short Sellers know we will recover. That is not the point. The point is - that the Cap Ex budgets are just that - budgets ! The companies who can impact the Oilpatch in a major way - have quite the track record of adhering to those budgets - just like most large public companies in the ''real'' world - as opposed to ''Roberts World - where all those ''empty'' tankers go looking for Oil (VBG) ! - maybe they're really looking for the ''tea in China'' ??? The mentality that Exxon/Mobil, or BP/Amoco is just going to open the floodgates of cash here is quite honestly - IGNORANT ! I am not expressing ''my'' opinion - I am trying to point out what the Street is focusing on ''nearterm''. A great example is VRC - there backlog has imploded - literally disappeared. There is NO WAY possible in the world for them to remotely come anywhere near the earnings numbers of 1997-8. It is cheerleading and Blind-Bullishness to think that VRC is going to get valued by the Street anywhere near its former levels with current Cap Ex spending. Cap Ex spending is not going to change in the next 6 months and all the CEO just told the world to move their expectations for recovery at least 6 months. - HELLO ! - never has the short term become more important ! If taking profits at the peak of euphoria and then finding subsectors and individual companies with 3-4-5 x multiple returns of the OSX is a ''bad thing'' - I am at a loss. We've had many opportunities to make 50% to ''doubles'' in individual trades like HMAR MEXP BEXP of late - and I get met with this inane criticism ? Time to find a trading thread imho.... this is just becoming a one way conversation too often... The entire point is reflected in your statement of - <<''like others though we'll build cash and run economics on all projects on an ongoing basis for the next six months''....>> ***keyword being -- '' six months'' - which takes us to 2000 and I totally agree that OS work will pick up significantly in 6 months. My entire point is that the OSX will not keep going up parabolically in the mean time and that there are glaring value opportunities sitting on a silver platter... That is my entire point. If I am boring anyone with short term horizon - I will step aside. However; trading this sector of late has offered so many anomalies of late - that it is - like taking candy from a baby. It did not take a Genius to watch about 8 companies accelerate upward once they returned to a $5 valuation to where Mutual Funds & Institutions could once again own them. I bought stocks like HLX & TMAR in the $4's - KNOWING that this was a piece of cake and that once they broke $5 - that the Institutional buying alone would blow them through $6 and near $7 for an easy -30-40%+ trade. I KNEW that with the required accounting (non cash) writedowns by small & micro-cap E&P's that they would be decimated by these $100 Million Writedowns/Impairments - they were & I bought; as the present price of Oil has virtually made this a temporary accounting anomaly giving me a virtual ''free money'' trade. While my myopic fixation on the near term has been met with criticism, or just a lack of the mental capacity to follow (in Roberts case) evidently there was something to it... While I once again got criticized for ''taking profits'' - ( think about that one for a while) and pointing out that it did not matter what ''I'', or ''we'' thought - but rather it was important what the Street was thinking - as ''they'' are the ones that move this market. While the OSX floundered here for the last week , or so - gee; what did those ''pound the table'' small cap E&P's do ? techstocks.com the nearest timeframe on this chart is ''20'' days - look at the breakout on about April 19th where my OSX profit taking and E&P micro cap table pounding occurred.... "MYOPIA" - what a wonderfull way to make money ! Gee, I guess taking profits at the TOP and rotating into positions that received a 4 times outperformance of the OSX in the last 20 days was just too shortsighted ? The #'s on the trading profit returns since April 19th in comparison to the OSX would only make the Blind Bulls cry.... silly, silly me - just made more of a profit and a higher percentage return than the OSX can make in the next 3 years. OSX needs to go to OSX 280 to match these returns. I have been wasting my time and too much so... Sharing ideas, trading strategies has been fun & profitable. There are a few very savvy posters here to whom I am indebted for their info & ideas. But, unfortunately they are in the vast minority; my comments are certainly not directed to them. When we reach these Euphoric Bull Runs - the level of ignorance and sheer imbecility is more than I can take... amazing - too be criticized as the Blindest of Bulls at one time - but, then via the school of hard knocks - learning to flourish & try to share the lessons of those mistakes - and to be then met with a volley of criticism for being ''too bearish'' - is laughable indeed.... Michael H - you should be able to appreciate that irony... Time to step aside - not unexpectedly - the euphoria has brought out the nutballs - nutballs have at it ... I got mellons to pick... I'll let them worry about the price of tea in China and all of those empty tankers looking for Oil (VBG) ... good luck all

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (43232)	4/26/1999 9:53:00 AM
From: diana g	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Doug and other Oil Business Insiders, If Producer compliance to pledged cuts is good, and oil price stable in high-teens, and Demand seems to be growing, (in other words, the best of all possible worlds), do you think it possible that the majors might find it desirable to increase spending earlier than expected? It would seem that advantages could be gained by being "early to the party "(<G>) to contract drillers etc. This would be balanced by greater perceived risk since producer compliance would be less proven, etc. But being early would clearly be an advantage in getting a better deal, yes? And every day the balance of risk/reward moves further toward favoring action. (Assuming compliance, etc) So it seems to me there might be some pressure to move forward before one's competition. How bold/conservative does your experience lead you to believe the majors will be? Will they almost certainly wait 6+ months or till 2000? Or might some try to 'Steal a March' and thereby increase competitive pressure on there peers to compete for drillers etc at early/cheaper rates? regards, diana