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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (120655)	4/26/1999 1:33:00 PM
From: Mike Van Winkle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

gartner6.gartnerweb.com gartner6.gartnerweb.com Data Quest world wide numbers Q1 98 Dell 1,539 7.3 927 5.0 66.1 Q2 98 Dell 1,722 8.2 984 5.3 74.9 Q3 98 Dell 1,895 8.4 1,177 5.9 61.0 Q4 98 Dell 2205 1376 60.2 (calculated from Q1-3 and year) Q1-4 98 Dell 7,361 7.9 4,464 5.5 64.9 Note: Tables are PCs only (desktop, deskside, notebook, ultraportable, laptop, and transportable). Server-marketed PCs are not included. Dataquest US PC shipments Q1 98 Dell 915 11.7 559 8.3 63.8 Q2 98 Dell 1,090,000 14.2 627,590 9.1 73.7 Q3 98 Dell 1,275 13.4 816 10.1 56.3 Q4 98 Dell 1312 853 53.8 (calculated from Q1-3 and year) Q1-4 98 Dell 4,592 12.7 2,855 9.4 60.9 IDC world wide numbers Q4 98 Dell 2,289 8.4% 1,471 6.2% 56% IDC US shipments Q3 98 Dell 1,340 14.1% 812 9.7% 65% Q4 98 Dell 1,375 12.8% 879.9 9.9% 56%

To: JRI who wrote (120655)	4/26/1999 2:46:00 PM
From: Gabriel008	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

John, we just finished moving to our new house yesterday. And, I finally got a telephone line! I've had to use the office computer, intermittently, over the past week in order to access the net. Otherwise, I had no contact with the 'real' world. Very frustrating. I'm still waiting for the IDC data. It seems everyone gets it before me and I'm a paying customer. Anyway, I accessed the data off the net this afternoon and found that DELL had achieved 2.450 million units - much higher than I had estimated for the Jan-March quarter. This tells me that DELL's February and March periods must have been incredibly big - in the range of 900,000 units each. April is probably in the same range. My estimates for these months were Feb - 800,000, March - 850,000 and April - 875,000 for a total of 2.525 million for the period. In reality we could DELL come in with numbers in the 2.7 million range for Q1. However, I don't believe that DELL management would want to show that large an increase. I suspect, therefore, that they will push back April sales into May in order to keep the number in the 2.5 million to 2.6 million units range. Also, knowing that Gateway experienced 3% sequential ASP erosion in Q1 leads me to believe that DELL will experience moderately higher ASP erosion since they were very aggressive this quarter. My guess is 4% price erosion. I reloaded my business model with these revised numbers and came up with 17 cents and this does not take into consideration the IBM royalty deal which could add another $23 per unit to their Gross Profit. As soon as I get the IDC data I'll contact you. Regards, Gabriel