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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (4791)	4/27/1999 5:45:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: "Is that a spot number you're looking at versus the 10 DMA of .55?" It is a one day reading and usually means nothing standing alone. BUT this is one of the lowest one day readings this year. Re: "If so does that bounce around a lot day to day and do you think it has much prognostic info versus the 10 DMA?" It was a closing figure and does bounce around intraday. The ten day moving average has more predictive value. BUT that one day reading tells you where we are and where we may be heading -- back to the 10 DMA highs of earlier this year. All we need is a few more days like this and that 10 DMA may well pop. With that said, the market has given every reason to be bullish. Earnings are outstanding. No inflation. Favorable interest rate environment. Neutral interest rate policy. Worldwide economic recovery. Broadening market. Those investment advisors have every reason to be bullish at the 65% level. BUT the question is how long this can last and when does the tide turn. Valuations are stretched and we have froth galore. Kosovo will eat $1B to $2B of our "surplus" per month. Alan can do his fed. tightening rap at anytime. Commodity stocks surge tell you the market sees a very strong economy. And as Brinker said, the big risk is that everyone starts recovering at the same time and we have an economic boom of sorts.