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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alohal who wrote (57718)	4/28/1999 6:22:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Alohal: My quarrel is with the valuations attached to the current crop of net stocks. Show me one that has a realistic valuation with respect to current or future earnings. Dell has done an amazing job with respect to marketing its products via the net. After Dell, the list is small. Will Dell's net sales success last? Have their internet sales margins been maintained as others have copied them? Net-based sales as a marketing phenomenon is still in its "early days". The valuations attached to internet-related stocks are unrealistic with respect to what counts,....their ability to make a profit. Worries for me include the lack of barriers to entry, the difficulty of ensuring that prospective clients know who you are or where your web page is located, the difficulty of differentiating one's product offerings from a myriad of similar entities, the problems associated with selling any product that is not generic or brand name, the security worries, the inconvenience for those who are not net literate, and the very fact that the net is so big that even the most definitive entry leads to a massive list of possibilities. The net is a marvellous thing, but so were many other new generic technologies when they first appeared. Many witnessed the stocks of their early providers soar, then inevitably fall back to more realistic values as each took its place within the bigger picture. From a marketing/sales point of view, it is vastly over-rated in my view and I am salivating (but not yet participating) at the prospects of some upcoming net stock sky dives. I do not count Cisco as a "net stock", but I also think it is over-valued. When one factors out the acquisitions, the growth in both revenues and profits has declined significantly. Even more worrisome is that there isn't much left for them to acquire that can be had at a reasonably price or that would add more than incremental value to their bottom line. Not yet short, but will be . (g) Best, Earlie