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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (29732)	4/27/1999 10:49:00 PM
From: Stefan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Skeeter my take on the strength of the chip related stock is based on comparison to the last recovery. Most people tend to think that the recovery will be as strong if not stronger than last time. One thing is wrong with this line of thought is that the last recovery was precipitated by a killer app. the Internet. I don't see a similar application on the horizon and thus don't see a strong recovery. There is no question that Internet will grow but not at the pace it set at the beginning. There will have to be a new "have to have" application to rally a strong recovery in the chip sector. Once enough people realize that this recovery is a sleeper stocks will go back to rational level. For now we are still dreaming but the dreams are less rosy.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (29732)	4/28/1999 5:15:00 AM
From: Duker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I am not trying to dismiss the DRAM folks ... obviously they are the key to a full recovery ... but, LRCX took an interesting approach during their conference call last quarter and described 42% of their bookings (which were actually decent) as related to telecommunications (and Bagley tossed in his board member view of TER at 45%). Again, the DRAM (or, RDRAM? or DDRDRAM?) manufacturers are a huge part of a true recovery ... I just thought it was an interesting way to slice data ... --Duker