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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TechMeister who wrote (8704)	4/27/1999 10:48:00 PM
From: Badger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

Techmeister-- Thanks for the CC synopsis. You are the man. Way to go QNTM! Badger

To: TechMeister who wrote (8704)	4/28/1999 8:58:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

I listened to the CC as well, but it was late last night, and today I left my notes at home. Will post more later, but just a couple of comments for now. HDs High end revenues went up 10%, but continued losses. Still see profitability in Q2 of FY99. Atlas 4 and 10K are being qualified at all major vendors, and will begin volume shipments sometime this quarter. Desktop revenues went down, despite shipping more units, due to falling ASPs, which averaged 8% this Q. However, a negative is that ASPs are now falling in low double digits, and will probably continue to do so through the quarter. They believe that this is a seasonal factor, not the result of market share grabs by vendors. They believe their position in the market has never been stronger, but the market itself has begun the quarter in a weaker position than last. There has been some channel inventory buildup since quarter end, though not at Quantum when it has dropped to below 3 weeks. DLT/ATL Tape business continues the trend of last quarter. Record revenues & profits again, increased "partner" revenues (i.e., royalties). Tandberg not mentioned. However, revenue for DLT will be sequentially flat in June Q, though up strongly Y-Y. DLT8000 will be shipped in summer, with "significant" revenue coming in Dec quarter. Slower ramp for SDLT. Quoted a study that said that Y2K issues mean that people will be reluctant to change their mode of backup in the next year (until 2H of 00), as they iron out other issues, so that bodes well for DLT and not so well for their competitors (didn't mention EXBT by name, although EXBT probably has a larger installed base of older drives than DLT does; I'm not sure if Mammouth II is backward compatible with the majority of this base, though; don't think so). ATL is still projected to grow faster than their market, which they believe is growing at 40%. IBM added as OEM reseller for ATL libraries, which means that now 4 out of the top 5 server vendors now sell ATL. Sounds like QNTM/ATL synergies may be working. Storage Systems MB explained the move to storage systems a little better (but not much), and in so doing clarified the reason they bought ATL rather than (as Z once suggested on this thread quite awhile ago) a competitor like EXBT. Apparently either someone at ATL or in DLT division has some ideas about how to create a network computer that somehow combines tape and disk. I can't say that I understand what Peter C. was getting at when he alluded to this, and I was pretty surprised when none of the analysts questioned him further, as it sounds like they are both trying to extend what people are doing now as well as do something entirely new and, presumably, better. Perhaps no one followed up because it sounded like this initiative wouldn't produce any revenues this fiscal year, although they said that they would have some announcements in 2H of CY99. It sounded intriguing, but perhaps people recall that DLT itself was the result of many years of R&D at DEC before commercialization. Still, if this initiative produces similar results, it may well be worth waiting for. Tracking stock They have done the paper work to split the company, have filed proxy papers with the SEC. One analyst said he had read them, but I haven't gotten my copy, has anyone else gotten anything in the mail? If the SEC approves it, they may be able to create the tracking stock as early as mid-June. Conclusion I agree with TechM and others--the DLT stub alone is worth more than the $20 that QNTM is trading for, at least 50% more and perhaps even more than that. The stock is a strong buy at this level. However, the market may not see it this way, as they still regard the company as a drive stock despite 30% of its revenues coming from DLT/ATL. After the stub becomes a reality, then the stock will go up, although there may be some selling in the drive portion as people unload it.

To: TechMeister who wrote (8704)	4/28/1999 11:06:00 AM
From: Lutz Moeller	Respond to of 9124

Tech Meister, thanks for good work. Lutz long time quantum holder (down under water now)