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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (24708)	4/28/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

LOL. Like talking to a wall, isn't it?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (24708)	4/28/1999 1:12:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Hey, Chuz, I have the new browser so I don't see the jerk's posts any more, however, 90% of the posts are answers to him, which is what he is after, of course. When everybody quits posting to him, as has happened in the past, he finally quits posting. It's a real shame that he has destroyed this thread. I used to enjoy it when I first bought Cisco, but almost everyone who posted has quit. I have tried, as have many others, to get SI to do something about him, but they won't, he stays within their guidelines, and helps them sell their new browser with the "ignore" function. I would not have believed that one person could be determined enough to destroy a thread, but he has. I guess I will pull my bookmark until the Fore merger causes him to go away. Too bad. We had a good thread here at one time. LindyBill

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (24708)	4/28/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: jach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Re: CSCO is way overpriced: Almost all great things have one common root, that is simplicity. CNPEGGI, PEGG, XCITABLITIE..., for me those stuff meant nothing. Simple comparison with CSCO and IBM today, CSCO is way overpriced, that's mo.

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (24708)	4/28/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Some thoughts on valuation based on a statistically significant multivariable regression analysis of 400 technology growth stocks 1984-1999: 1. Prior to 1998, the best predictors of technology growth stock performance were straightforward: earnings momentum (1st derivative of EPS growth), estimate revisions, and earnings surprises. 2. P/E was and still is a perverse indicator - high P/E stocks stay high P/E stocks and low P/E stocks die. 3. In 1998, the equasion that had worked for 14 years fell apart - earnings momentum, estimate revisions and earnings surprises were statistically insignificant predictors of price performance. In their place was price momentum (1st derivative of % share price appreciation) and earnings stability (inverse of volatility). 4. On Cisco specifically: Earnings momentum was poor in 1998 but it didn't seem to matter. YoY EPS growth slowed from 47% in 1997 to 28% in 1998 and 27% thus far in 1999. This was due both to a flattening of top-line growth rates (with a recent reacceleration) and to a 300bp increase in expenses. Nonetheless, the P part of the P/E equasion continued to grow at a similar pace as in 1997. Since the E slowed down and the P didn't, the effect on P/E is obvious. 5. The question on the table is: will the market rules of 1998 continue, meaning Cisco's price can continue to rise faster than its earnings? or will the market return to the rules of 1984-1997, meaning Cisco's P may slow down to let the E catch up? The recent headfake of a rotation into cyclicals should be enough for most to consider the likelihood of the first scenario, although the second is also more than plausible.