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To: RealMuLan who wrote (43462)	4/28/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Yiwu, It is my understanding that there was going to be a couple of months before full (80%+) OPEC compliance was to be expected. If it is true that OPEC is already at 64% compliance within the first month, this should be seen as excellent performance in a very short period and is probably one of the big reasons oil prices are over $18/bbl. I hope if someone reading this believes I'm off base, that they will jump in here with post and give us a more thorough analysis.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (43462)	4/28/1999 7:47:00 PM
From: Cragganmore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I believe the 2.1 mbpd includes non-OPEC pledges as well. If this is correct, the compliance % is greater than the 64% you are saying. The following article seems to agree that the mood is bullish ahead of the OPEC compliance number release. biz.yahoo.com I'm including the section I found interesting >>> Prices jumped 20 cents in the early evening on estimates from consultants showing OPEC had cut oil production by 1.35 million barrels a day in April, the first month of a new round of output reductions. This figure showed good compliance by group members with a series of production-cutting agreements reached over the last year to reduce the global oil glut. <<<< Cragganmore

To: RealMuLan who wrote (43462)	4/29/1999 9:33:00 AM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 95453

From Bloomberg: <<OPEC Compliance With Oil Production Cuts at 81% in April, Report Says London, April 29 (Bloomberg) - The 10 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries involved in a pact to cut output slashed oil production by 1.46 million barrels a day in April, Reuters said, citing unnamed consultants. With the exception of Iraq, which increased production as it is not involved in the pact, the reduction translates into an 81 percent rate of compliance with the target the group imposed on itself at the beginning of April, the report said. When Iraq's output, which rose by 110,000 barrels a day in April, is factored in, the consultants said in total OPEC's 11 members reduced April production by 1.35 million barrels a day. Yesterday Brent futures prices recorded their biggest rally in about three weeks as production cuts by OPEC drained U.S. oil supplies almost 7 million barrels below levels last year, after U.S. oil imports slumped 17 percent week-on-week. >>