To: Doug Fowler who wrote (53594 ) 4/28/1999 10:14:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
Amazon.com – 27 April 1999 3 n EPS As far as we are concerned, the company's EPS performance is relevant only as a benchmark--if EPS differ significantly from our estimate, we want to understand why, but only so that we can re-evaluate the long-term assumptions that form the basis for our model. We are looking for a loss of $0.28 before goodwill and extraordinary charges, which is inline with consensus estimates. We expect that there could be some upside to this estimate. Amazon.com is rapidly increasing its investment rate with the aim of creating long-term value: customers, infrastructure, employees, technology, competition, market-share, and brand-building efforts outrank bottom line performance in management's hierarchy of priorities. Investors who believe in this long-term strategy and opportunity--as we do (although the magnitude of the planned increase took even our breath away)--should own the stock. Investors who don't, shouldn't. n Revenue from existing customers The percentage of Amazon.com's revenue from existing customers (those that have bought from the company at least twice) has increased steadily over the last two years, to a high of 64% last quarter. We regard this as an excellent indication of Amazon.com's customer loyalty, and therefore would be pleased to see the metric continue to improve. n Progress of auction business Amazon.com launched its auction business at the beginning of April. We believe the company has a good chance of becoming a leader in this business, and we would love to hear an update on the progress of the service. We expect that we won't, though. n Outlook for Q2 and the rest of the year The single most important piece of information for the stock in our view, is management's outlook for the rest of the year. As usual, we hope to be able to raise our revenue and gross profit estimates significantly.