To: Hectorite who wrote (10576 ) 4/29/1999 11:38:00 AM From: David Wright Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14162
Re: The comments on HWP Here are some general thoughts on TA. For those who would like to get a basic, but coherent explanation of TA indicators, I recommend "Technical Analysis From A to Z" by Steven B. Achelis. Also, Jake Bernstein's, "The Compleat Day Trader" is great read for applying Stochastics...even to long term charts. Some very consistent results. MACD is a trend following indicator, and RSI is an oscillator. The math is quite different, but they often seem to tell the same story. I like MACD best because when it bottoms, and turns up with a steep slope, you know the stock price is going to move up quickly. I have trouble reading a solid reversal out of RSI because it zig-zags a lot. I think if you put Bollinger Bands, MACD and stochastics together, and really study the math, you will get a feel for the interaction. I was using all three daytrading for a while, and felt pretty good about the combination. I think the key to reading and gaining confidence in TA indicators is to gain an understanding of what's happening in a dynamic sense, not just what the number says. That's why Herm is so correct when he tells you to look for a BB penetration when the BB bulges. The bulge is dynamics..i.e., rate of change. Stochastics are the same way. If you bet your money on the 20/80 line crosses alone, you will lose. Look for the slope of the line after the %k/%D crossover, and if the crossover is combined with a crossing of the 20 or 80 signal line ...and, the steeper the better. The other thing to look for on a TA chart is to see if the stock price has historically responded consistently to the indicators as it cycled in its trading range. As far as HWP is concerned, my feel is that it has peaked...but that is a very weak signal right now, based on only the last couple of days of information. It seems to be at the peak of its trading range...but could be breaking out. Stochastics shows a very slight leveling out of the upslope, maybe a crossover beginning, but well above the 80% line...it could hold there for a long time while the stock moves on up. MACD is going flat. This, and RSI also beginning to go very slightly countertrend versus price (which is the normal RSI signal that is used), would tend to make me want to take a few more days, and watch for trend changes based on volume, before I made any decision.