Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Global Crossing - GX (formerly GBLX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mazman who wrote (746)	4/29/1999 8:35:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15615

on Pioneer demand estimates dont think for one millisecond that Pioneer estimates for future demand are even close... expect them to be off by an order to magnitude... 150,000 km seems like a joke, just six times around the globe... any mention of assumptions? ... we are talking about one of the two central bottlenecks in future fiber netwks (intercontinental and last mile to corporations)... I am in statistical forecasting field, and can assure you of numerous requisite assumptions necessary to make this claim Fortune article in April made excellent point... long distance telephone market is extremely elastic... GBLX has already undercut current carrier prices to win initial customers... it worked so well that GBLX will continue to undercut as a tactical policy... at half the price, demand more than doubles... as people turn to the fiber IP networks, the old guard telopolies will become increasingly "horrified" (as author said) to watch their investments depreciate lightyears faster than their 40yr schedules... end result could likely be accelerated demand of fiber IP usage, coincident with accelerated abandonment of carriers charging 3x as much... Fortune concluded that GBLX and others behind in time will surely expose the gross inefficiencies and overcharging from the old "copper cages" (as Gilder calls them) and we havent gotten to internet telephony yet, brought to the table by Frontier... wicked, no static, no gaps with cost of a call from NewYorkCity to Philly being almost the same as NYC to London, my mommy will call her sister over there much more often... my friend in Boston will call his daughter in Australia more often... I will call from Boston my young woman friend in Munich more often... elasticity is probably NOT built into Pioneer forecast... Pioneer most likely used the age-old leaning post among stat rats: straight line forecasting thru rear view mirror into the future I WOULD DOUBLE THE PIONEER ESTIMATE OF 150,000 KM NEEDED / jim willie