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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: w0z who wrote (29825)	4/29/1999 6:35:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

>> Price declines in DRAM do what to volume? It depends on the reason in price decline. If it is due to increase in supply then your analysis is correct. But if it is due to a decrease in demand, then the volume will decrease. To illustrate this to yourself, draw two sets of supply and demand curves on the same scale and study their interactions. ST P.S. I have no opinions on Soundview's analysis.

To: w0z who wrote (29825)	4/29/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Bill, Before trashing Soundview too much, you might want to check what's causing DRAM prices to drop. It just might be the crossover from producing 16 Mb chips to producing 64Mb and denser chips. Thus fewer chips yield more MB; and fewer TER testers are required. And once the migration to 64Mb is complete, guess how many testers will be required for the 128Mb and 256Mb generations. Then as the shrinks, reduce the silicon real estate required to produce those chips, guess how much extra process equipment is required to process fewer wafers. One thing about Rick Whittington, he called the top accurately long before any one else even remembered that this is still a cyclical sector. Before dismissing O'Brien out of hand, you might want to get some facts. ... and then again, you may prefer not to. ;-) Ian