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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (54175)	4/29/1999 7:53:00 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Michelle -- Not an expert by any means -- but it seems to me that the stage is set for tighter markets for many things -- which translates into rising prices. Oil gets into everything. So does labor and raw materials like lumber and copper. When big Al dropped the neutron bomb on the market last fall to put out the fire, he set us up for a.) a huge speculative run in the market and b.) expansion of demand someplace down the road -- like right about now. Denial is running thick -- and quite a few 'smart' people are going to get left behind cause they are looking in the rear-view mirror. Prices are going higher -- probably for just about everything except a computer -- and you know who we can thank for that :) Dell of course!

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (54175)	4/30/1999 1:21:00 AM
From: MSI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Michelle, re: inflation, I remember it affected everything in the 70's. We weren't as well connected back then. One thing we have now is greater efficiency of world trade, as well as greater acceleration in technology-driven productivity than the 70's and 80's. We're only 5% of the population, and emerging countries will keep inflation in hard goods under check for several years until they industrialize & we will continue to get "stuff" cheap. Soft goods, software, and services people are inflating costs dramatically but as long as productivity increases at the same rate, it counters it. That's the theory. I'm not an expert, but I think it's inevitable we'll monetize part of the $15 trillion in "wealth effect" that will show up in threads like this where the talk suddenly turns to what color Lexis, or Gulfstream to get. I just got a 45' cruiser, and man, the prices. I'd be an idiot to buy it 5 years ago, and probly an idiot now, but a happy idiot! That might be a good definition of the wealth effect. The rest of it is the efficiency created by the internet which could be worth several trillion in productivity, balancing out that wealth effect. Anyone disagree? It won't reduce gold, real estate, or art, however IMO. That stuff is going up. I'm long net plumbing, but also NEM and r.e.