To: Timothy Detjens who wrote (2058 ) 5/3/1999 5:19:00 PM From: Pete Mason Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2443
Wow, Timothy, thanks very much for the long message!! Sorry I haven't gotten back sooner... with a two-year-old and a seven-week-old, my time at the keyboard has been drastically reduced. Very good points you raised. Esp points 3 and 4, which are the lessons I need to absorb. OTOH, despite my current underwater TMSR situation, I have done very well with stocks I've shorted in the past few years; in calendar 1998, I didn't make a single losing short-to-cover round trip; but as you can imagine, each short almost without fail has risen, sometimes dramatically, soon after I've started shorting it... I just can't seem to wait for the really big rise before shorting! Last week, or maybe two weeks ago, I did manage to short a decent chunk at 21 1/2, and at the same moment put in a buy at 18 which executed the next day! Hence my current sell back at 21 1/2... I'd love to turn that corner a few more times. On a different topic, I believe I read from you that TalkNPray accounted for 4% of revenues, or approx $330K. Dunno how much they get per unit... it's on the street at $19.95, so if they get $15 per copy (probably high), that's 22,000 units. If it's $10 per copy, that's 33,000 units. Any thoughts about that as an initial sell-in through all channels? If CompUSA got 15 per store, that's about 2500 units there... so maybe 25000 is a pretty good sell-in? I can't judge whether that constitutes stuffing the channels (it is vis a vis likely demand!!) or whether that's a reasonable amount. Looks like they have to move a TON of units to make much of a dent, in any case. Oh wait, have they recognized all initial sell-in revenue at this point? Or is the 4% just whatever's been paid for, with an unknown remainder buried in acct's receivable? In that case, we have no clue what kind of numbers we're talking about... Anyway, if the 4% of revenue represents total sell-in, even if none sell through, the returns won't kill the next quarter... One other thing, people are talking about OEM deals where TMSR stuff shows up on every CD, etc. Do they have a software-only product that I'm unaware of?? What's the point of getting TalkNPlay software without the headset?? -- Pete