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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (8734)	4/30/1999 9:22:00 AM
From: Sam	Respond to of 9124

Robert, Thanks for printing Andy Neff's valuation. I don't understand him, though, when he says, <<a price/earnings multiple of 12x-15x times these projected earnings for a business with a 25% growth rate potential. This multiple may be conservative given the dynamics of the DLT business, which could argue for a higher multiple owing to its profitability and growth. >> He is certainly being conservative and hedging. Perhaps he has been following DD companies too long. Most business with a 25% growth rate, assuming that 25% is consistent and that the sector itself is dynamic rather than flat, will get more than a 12-15% PE, especially if that business is the leader in the sector. The major risk that I see is SDLT not coming out on time or being buggy. But it seems to me that they have to be given the benefit of the doubt, having executed pretty well so far. Perhaps he wants to keep the stock price low to accumulate at these prices? If you put his valuations together, even he is saying that the stock is worth at least $25 ($10 for DD, $15 for DLT are his low estimates), which is a pretty good gain from the $17 and change that it is currently trading at.

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (8734)	4/30/1999 10:31:00 AM
From: Henry W Singor	Respond to of 9124

No Robert your not the only one. I'm beginning to see that it is better to hold a good company long term than to trade in and out for a quick loss. If DLT + ATL grow in excess of 25% for the next 5 years we will have a 300% return even if QNTM's valuation doesn't improve. That plus the added assurance that since we are at a rock bottom valuation there isn't much risk. Don't get sucked into selling this thing for a 50% gain if that happens in the next few months. You will be leaving way too much money on the table. Look at the underlying story. Sure Disk Drives are a commodity, cry me a river, your paying very little for this part of the business. DLT on the other hand is a proprietary product with a lot of pricing power and an awesome future. I agree with Andy Neff that his valuation of the DLT business is conservative but it really doesn't matter. When it comes right down to it there is only one simple decision to make. Buy or Sell. Andy can afford to give DLT a low valuation because the market does. Why would he be as bold as me and say this is a $72 stock when the market says it is an $18 stock. He knows that he can assign QNTM a valuation of $30 now and then upgrade latter when the market starts to buy into it. I'm sure he doesn't want to get too radical and risk his reputation or his job. Ultimately the valuation is for short term gains. Growth is what drives a stock long term. I believe that QNTM has that growth with 1) DLT 2) ATL 3) Digital VCR's 4) Enterprise hard drives 5) And even Desktop Drives. Yeh! even desktop drives. They have come down over the past year to the point that you can now get a single platter drive for under $100. That too is bottoming out so we should expect growth to resume in this sector too. I have owned QNTM for over 8 years now and I agree with Micheal B. The future's so bright I gotta wear shades. OK I paraphrased. For all of you who have been with this thing as long as I have, don't let your frustration over the past 18 months get you out of this prematurely. Give this stock 1 year and see if it doesn't pan out. Henry

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (8734)	4/30/1999 8:02:00 PM
From: john p. carney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

<Thread, Am I the only one that thinks that the tracking stock is a bad idea?> Robert, I will probably sell the DD portion of my QNTM the instant I get the opportunity. John

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (8734)	5/1/1999 7:19:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

Robert, <<Am I the only one that thinks that the tracking stock is a bad idea? >> <<Better they focused on their business than watching their stock price.>> I have been wondering when we might find something to disagree about. (Fortunately we didn't disagree about GLM<G> ). I thing QNTM mgt is doing exactly what they should do to enhance shareholder value which is, rightfully so, a major part of their business. In fact, to be honest with you, I think the DD captains of the past have been entirely too indifferent about shareholder value and I see QNTM's move as refreshing and encouraging. It is frankly, one of the primary reasons I was finally attracted to this stock. However, from one fundamentalist to another, I can appreciate your reaction to it. Both of us likely want to see something accretive out of this. Something concrete with real value. Well, its probably not there. Its the same assets and the same revenue streams and the same troubled, and less troubled, business units with the same set of strong and weak points. Is the difference going to then be simply perception? Maybe. But take some advice from an old marketeer. Perception can mean a great deal. Which is why good marketeers are a bit like shamnistic alchemists. You know. Turning chicken shit into chicken salad is a neat trick. Especially if you are in the chicken salad business and have a limited supply of chickens. Another comment. Lawrence is right. Maxtor is tantalizing at these prices and not just to individual wandering investors like us. They are a primary take over target IMO. Best, Stitch