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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (121448)	4/30/1999 3:39:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176387

I am going to be in a bad mood this weekend if we cave the last 20 minutes...give me green..I'm a green-go <G>

To: JRI who wrote (121448)	5/2/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi John,..Re:. *Off Topic* John, first of all you're not grasshopper and I'm certainly not master, (mistress maybe but not master) LOL! Just joking. Wanted to answer this sooner but needed to assemble some FACTS. Re:.U.S. economy slowing: well, I DO include exports, since the export "economy" is an important part of the overall economy.. Exports account for 11.3% of U.S. GDP, an important measure but not anything like the consumer which is slightly more than 68% according to James Padhina, an economics columnists for thestreet.com See below from his April 21st column. The first is that record trade deficits have not kept the economy from growing quite nicely thankyouverymuch. Exports? We don't need no stinking exports. Keep in mind that they account for just 11.3% of gross domestic product. Our net export position has subtracted more and more from growth during the past three years -- 0.19 percentage point in 1996, 0.27 percentage point in 1997, and 1.13 percentage points in 1998 -- and last year GDP still grew more than it has during any year since 1984. thestreet.com While I agree we are having a tough time on exports, (they subtracted 2.4% from the Q1 GDP number), our biggest trade partners are Mexico and Canada so it appears we are not as exposed as say a country with more Asian trade. Table below, from same article, shows the weights of various trade partners. When North America Western Europe Pacific Rim South America % of all exports 35.5% 25.5% 23.8% 8.2% Source: Census Bureau. Figures in parentheses denote declines. I think that given the weights of the various components of GDP, and the weights of the various trade partners that we are going to be going gang busters in Q2 as well. Re:.Have heard that domestic spending slowed down in April...I expect we will not see the torrid rate that we saw in Q4 and Q1... Again from Mr. Padhina's column on April 30th, after release of Q1 GDP. Something called final sales to domestic purchasers (or FSDP) is arguably the most important line in any GDP report. FSDP equal personal consumption expenditure plus investment plus government spending (you can find this beast in Table 1 of the GDP release). In plain English, FSDP represent the broadest available measure of final domestic demand. On a real (inflation-adjusted) basis FSDP rose 5.1% last year, but they were rising at a 5.7% year-on-year rate as the second quarter began. On a nominal basis FSDP rose 5.7% last year, but they were rising at a 6.5% year-on-year rate as the second quarter began. In other words, when the second quarter began 29 days ago, the pace of domestic demand --on both a real and a nominal basis -- was still accelerating. It wasn't leveling off, and it certainly wasn't decelerating. It was accelerating; it was increasing at an increasing rate. thestreet.com Also, some other measures show April as being robust. REALITY CHECK: US AUTO DEALERS SCORE SALES PUNCH IN APRIL NEW YORK (MktNews) - U.S. auto dealers say the unanticipated strength seen this year continued into April, with buyers undeterred by rising fuel prices or hostilities in Europe -- but somewhat slowed by Tax Day. economeister.com Also the weekly chain store sales and Johnson Redbook as well as the Conference Board and University of Michigan Consumer sentiment surveys still show an enthusiastic consumer. I agree that market weakness could put the mother of all dampers on this enthusiasm but it seems the market is making impressive gains and it's only barely into the 2nd quarter. On rates, I'm afraid we'll be stuck in this range for awhile and may even see 6% long rates. Remember, the bond market is looking out 6 to 9 months. So since the Fed sometimes lags the bond market, we probably won't see any Fed action but the bond market will do the work anyway. I know very well the inflation numbers are tame now but they are changing. On Friday, CNBC reported a hefty increase in the prices paid component of the Chicago Purchasing Managers report. We'll have to wait to see the NAPM since CPMI is not posted on the web that I know of. But we should be watching these numbers and the numbers of prices paid when the Beige Book comes out. Another worrisome number is the gain in 'personal disposable income' as reported in the GDP. It showed a YoY increase of 4.6% which conflicts with the ECI gain of only 3% reported on Thursday. Personal income numbers are coming out tomorrow from the BEA and we'll see. Also out tomorrow is the NAPM and construction spending numbers. And on Friday, we get the mother of all eco numbers which is the April jobs report which will also have some measure of YoY wage gains. Not trying to argue, just stating the facts man! <g> Sorry about the length but feel compelled to back up with facts. BTW, Dell not in a down trend, just a trading range and maybe even making a coil which is a powerful pattern from which the stock can spring strongly upwards.<g> dailystocks.net Cheers, Lee PS - Smoltzie and Millwood not looking to bad either. <vbg>