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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (29860)	5/1/1999 8:54:00 PM
From: Henry Eichorszt	Respond to of 70976

Chris Bulkey says the semiconductor capital equipment industry is still in the early stages of a prolonged rebound. He adds that all indications suggest that Applied Materials will exceed second quarter earnings estimates.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (29860)	5/1/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Eugene, The following is a AMAT spread sheet which compares Data from 7/96 thru 8/97 with 7/98 thru 8/99. Notice the RS, Price and BTB of 7 96-97 when compared with 98-99. Also, look at the IBD Group Semi Equip Price Ranking which I have been tracking. The numbers appear to have jumped June '98 through March '99. Then, the IBD Industrial Group Semi Equip. Price Ranking showed the sub sector breaking down to where is now at 49 with #1 being the highest ranking and 197 being the lowest ranking. When examing the various data on the market, sectors and specific stocks we are seeing, IMO, mixed signals. Yes, I am concerned with AMAT's performance, especially, with the way that Mutual funds have appeared to be unloading the SEMI's. Does anyone have confirming data or data to refute my data? Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from my DW, IBD and SEMI data. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." Paul 96/97 96/97 96/97 98/99 98/99 98/99 98/99 MTH RS PRICE BTB VRS RS PRICE BTB IBD Ind. Group Semi Equip Rrice Rating 7/96 <10 22-25 0.76 20-54 29-34 0.65 193- 8/96 <10 23-27 0.71 38-56 25-37 0.57 - 9/96 11-15 24-30 0.7 38-50 23-27 0.57 - 10/96 11-27 26-30 0.78 40-65 22-36 0.75 -123 11/96 15-79 27-40 0.9 62-86 33-43 0.84 123-10 12/96 60-87 35-40 1.01 92-96 38-47 0.96 9-2 1/97 65-94 36-49 1.08 94-96 46-64 1.12 2-5 2/97 90-95 41-55 1.07 94-97 56-71 1.21 4-7 3/97 94-95 44-54 1.15 94-97 55-67 1.3 5-13 4/97 94-96 45-55 1.1 82-96 49-68 14-49 5/97 95-97 56-72 1.09 6/97 95-97 58-75 1.07 7/97 95-97 74-95 1.12 8/97 96-99 89-108 1.1

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (29860)	5/2/1999 1:58:00 AM
From: Henry D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Eugene, my guess for recent weakness are: the alleged slowing of PC growth and DRAM pricing pressure. in IBD monday edition, semi equip are down to 52!!!! 3 months ago ranked 2!!! i sure hate to see a drop back to 199 though this is unlikely for this year. on the bright side there is an article about copper chips in IBD and the future prospect of copper.