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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AJ Berger who wrote (15748)	5/1/1999 9:07:00 PM
From: Patherzen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27722

AJ...from Yahoo... Don't know if this is accurate..but another's calculations... quick and dirty valuation-navr by: pooper1998 50884 of 50918 Net radio -9.8 million shares 3.3 million sold by the company @15=$50 million 6.5 million retained by company and NETRADIO "pops" to $50 per share = $325 million Remainin valuation of NAVR business- lets be conservative and say $5 per share= $115.5 million Total valuation= 50+325+115=$490 million per share value and opening price on Monday=$ 21 per share This assumes that NETRADIO is only valued at approx $500 million. Based upon others in the industry , NETRADIO could have a value close ot $700 to $800 million. Enjoy the ride!!

To: AJ Berger who wrote (15748)	5/1/1999 10:11:00 PM
From: zurdo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

Thanks,AJ!!!! You have made my day!!!..You are one of the most valuable contrarian indicators we have on this thread on how NAVR stock prices will fare in the near future!!!!...I have noticed that you get aggressively negative when NAVR shows signs of progressing in price value....and the more negative your posts get, the better the price becomes for us long Benchwarmers...This is by far the most negative you have become on NAVR, so that bodes well for the price appreciation prospects on NAVR!!!!...Thanks again!!!!

To: AJ Berger who wrote (15748)	5/1/1999 11:33:00 PM
From: Bald Man from Mars	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27722

don't worry ... too many investors don't do the math, they are willing to pay whatever you ask for, by the way, everyone has a different way to value a company, one may look at price to earnings and the other may look at price to sales, and they can come up with quite different numbers so you sell when it is clear that there are no more buyers, don't worry about any numbers have a nice weekend ...

To: AJ Berger who wrote (15748)	5/1/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: Marketeer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

AJ, I understand your frustration with NAVR. The "potential" opportunity cost has been quite high over the last several months. That being said, the key word to "playing" NAVR until NETR IPO is "over-valuation". Momentum buying, Internet feeding frenzy, and the Last Fool Theory will work for us longs as it is working for other Internet stocks. Using the conventional formula, NAVR = $8(base) + 0.21 * 1.5(Pre-IPO Hype Factor) * NETR, we get the following matrix: NETR => NAVR $30 $17.45 (Low end; NETR valued at approx. $300 mil) $40 $20.60 $50 $23.75 $60 $26.90 (Achievable first day NETR closing price) $70 $30.05 $80 $33.20 $90 $36.35 $100 $39.50 (High end; NETR valued at approx. $1 bil) NOTE - The base is formed not by historical NAVR performance, but by its recent low of $11 - 0.21 * $15 (expected upward revised NETR offered IPO price). Fuzzy Considerations: (i) The base can be reasonably set at $10 due to improving core business and the removal of Netradio losses from the book. (ii) With all the recent focus and activity on streaming multimedia content with increased advertising and e-commerce opportunity (eg. LCOS's webradio, AOL's interest in Chancellor, YHOO's buyout of BCST), the Hype Factor of 1.5 may be conservative. As a comparison, DBCC had a HF of 2! ONE POSSIBLE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO - With a neutral market and increased rotation into "streaming" net stocks, NAVR can peak near $37.40, assuming an increased HF of 1.75 and NETR valued at $80. The bottom-line is that all of us will get the chance to get out with a handsome profit. Don't be greedy and try not to focus on could of/should of scenarios. That will only drive you crazy. To all the shorts out there, cut your losses quickly unless you have adequate margin power to withstand the impending rise. Regroup and reshort later if you are still up to it. Marketeer