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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (7676)	5/3/1999 3:14:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

Mr Fun. You are very long winded. Let me try to distill this. Please refer to your last post for background on each point. 1) Voice is front-ended and passed to the 5E. Each voice circuit sucks 64K of TDM bandwidth whether it's in use or not..period end of story. To support more users means purchasing new 5E's...or....well, looking at alternatives? Now, if a user deploys a voice on packet network what are the chances that they will use the 7R/E edge - 100%? IF so, than I am wrong. However if even 1 customer uses a multiservice edge from Cisco, 3Com or another packet based telephony company than that is lost buisness...period. BTW: I'm sorry I confused you by mixing in SP switches with enterprise. I simply was looking to prove my point about maintanence costs. I see you didn't go there.... That's fine. 2) A matter of opinion only. Not worth discussing. My timeframes are shorter than yours. BTW: I didn't forget about wireless and mentioned it two posts ago. 3) I think we agree here. I never suggested that the core will migrate - there is little benefit. However the interface between the prem and the network edge will indeed migrate....due to lower costs and easier support for both customer and SP. In the campus VoIP is a slam dunk...this will drive convergence on the network access and transport side....not to be confused with the core. 4)You're argument is rooted in the false assumption that the bottleneck is in the backbone and that fiber will solve the problem. The real issue is in the transport and edge...moving traffic from the premise into the network and from the edge switch into the backbone. You can lay down fiber until you're blue in the face and it won't solve the problem. The key is to get better utilization out of edge network resources...the SP's that excell there will have superior cost structures and be in a better position to compete. As for voice on ATM - you can't deliver the enhanced services such as unified messaging, "follow-me" service, or other new offerings on connection oriented nets. Oh, and your point about best effort traffic degrading due support of real time voice is weak when you consider that voice takes up very little bandwidth. I agree with your point on ATM however, VoIP and VoATM (VTOA) will coexist for a long time...as will circuit...I think our main point of contention throughout this discussion is simply timing and market penetration....and then who benefits and who needs to "run like hell". 5) There is even a bigger shortage of talent in ATM! As for your comment about AT&T's upgrade... seems to me that voice nets probably had growing pains when they were first deployed as well. And of course there's always that irritaing recording "Sorry, your call did not go through, please hang up and try again". Gee old world equipment is always perfect either. Let's not start a pissing contest.... Fun, I agree that LU has lots of other businesses...that's not what this discussion is about. The discussion is about timing and migration given new technologies in the multiservice data world - the high margin business for LU. Who will capitalize, and what challenges lie ahead. I never ever said or even implied for that matter that LU's business was crumbling. I merely asked the question about their migration challenges that is the point of my post(s). If you read this to mean that LU's business is crumbling well, that's your assessment - not mine. OG