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To: Jing Qian who wrote (8991)	5/4/1999 3:34:00 AM
From: Michael P. Michaud	Respond to of 29970

Jing, 3 long time posters on this board, 2 of which have a much broader grasp on the regulatory (e.g., FCC) environment than I, have told you that a RR-ATHM merger is not in ATHM's best interest. Further, if T ends up controlling 95% of North American cable broadband pipes, that's a monopoly in anybody's book. I read the link Darlene just provided, and I gotta tell you, the chairman of the FCC is beginning to get mighty nervous about all of these big telecom mergers. If 1 person told you you had a tail, you would probably blow it off, but if 3 people told you you had a tail, wouldn't you at least look?? Anyway, lets hope tech can have a better day tomorrow

To: Jing Qian who wrote (8991)	5/4/1999 8:49:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 29970

Thanks for the reply. You say: "ATHM/RR will not be perceived as a monopoly until they actually become one in 5 years." ATHM's growing hegemony in this space is already remarkably well known. In the interim, would a merged ATHM/RR continue to command exclusivity of entry to the MSOs' outside plant? A major factor which you have not addressed is the potential for monumental disruptions that would ensue. Have you ever had to endure a Monday Morning's travails, after a LAN upgrade that took place over a weekend? Multiply that by several hundred thousand or millions of users' potential experiences. Plug and Play field techs wont help in such a calamitout event. Vallium sales usually soar when such debacles unfold. Take it from someone who has had to answer to user organizations in the past, this is the real thing, and ATHM would have to deal with it. There are no guarantees that it would come off without heavy casualties. As I think of it, perhaps an actual melding of the two, outright, may not be necessary at the operating system and gui/html levels. Darwinian factors may cause each to evolve to a common set of attributes, anyway. That would leave one to wonder why one would select one over the other, other than for reasons having to do with cable operator's territorial franchise rights. It does make for interesting speculation, though, during the short term. Whatever the outcome, I remain firmly confident that such a move is both technologically and administratively risky, and that the fed's apparent leniency in this space has finite limits. Lest, of course, they themselves rule out a future for themselves. Which, kidding aside, is a real factor in this consideration, too. The latter precept can be found in a standard government issue titled, "Survival Tactics."

To: Jing Qian who wrote (8991)	5/5/1999 8:17:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

Just two days ago we were discussing T potentially being cited for cornering the cable TV and cable ISP space. Your reply to was: "I don't think the government will bother to intervene at this stage. So the merger of RR and ATHM will provide the economics of scale and @Home branding advantage. The advantage far outweigh the risk of government interference." Today, from the AT&T Thread here in SI: Message 9344587 An excerpt follows: -------------- "On Capitol Hill, news of AT&T's latest purchase had lawmakers expressing concerns about the growing concentration of ownership of cable wires that are starting to carry telephone and high-speed Internet service in addition to television programs. "Senators Mike DeWine, Republican of Ohio, and Herb Kohl, Democrat of Wisconsin, said they would schedule a hearing soon in the Senate Judiciary Committee's antitrust subcommittee. ''We need to closely examine all competitive aspects of this proposal to ensure competition is preserved and consumers are protected,'' the two said in a joint statement, adding the ''jury is still out'' on how the deal will affect the cable market. "Rep. Billy Tauzin, chairman of the House Commerce Committee's communications subcommittee, has ''serious concerns about the proposed merger'' and the ''concentration of ownership in cable,'' a spokesman for the Louisiana Republican said." --------------- You may just be proven to be correct, in the end. But, for the moment, I think that there are some clouds forming overhead. We may get an oppotunity to see how well Armstrong can walk between the drops.