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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: R.Gluck who wrote (5297)	5/4/1999 8:05:00 PM
From: zuma_rk	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 20297

Nice Post over on Yahoo -- Simple. Elegant. Common Sense. (and alot cheaper than those BankerBoys from Wall Street would charge you for the same conclusion)...<g> I hope that Pete and the Board of Directors are thinking along these lines: *** messages.yahoo.com Do you really want Yahoo for CKFR? by: WSSMP (34/M/Bellevue, WA) 4559 of 4559 f all you have is $10K and you can either invest in Yhoo or CKFR which would you pick? Assuming an arbitrary 5 years horizon, consider the these two factors 1)appreciation potential and 2) relative risks. * If Yhoo were to appreciate 10 times current market cap, the company will be worth $310b which is about $40b less than msft and about twice the size of AT&T. I guesstimate that the probability of that happening is no better than the probability of Yhoo being worth $15b in 5 years (when the internet dust settles). Don't get me wrong, I am a strong believer in the internet and I have some internet holdings. What I do not know is how much is the "right" valuation for these companies. * If CKFR were to appreciate 10 times current market cap, the company would be worth $25b which is about $305b less than msft and about 8% of AT&T. I guesstimate that the probability of that happening is better than the probability of CKFR retreating and losing 50% of its value in 5 years. I think this is one of the reasons some long term holders on this board are somewhat irritated by the buyout rumor. Infact, I would dare to say that the rumor is hurting the image of CKFR. Most people like to see a "projected" conservative image of entities that are entrusted to handle their money. Yhoo is a high fly internet company that does not fit the conservative image. It is one thing to form a distributive alliance with Yhoo, quite another to be owned by Yhoo. It would be quite a different story if we were talking about IBM or even EDS. The window of opportunity is opened for a short time for CKFR to own the world. CKFR can be aggressive and go for it or it can squander the opportunity and allow its competition to catch up. It is time CKFR starts becoming a household name- the CSCO approach. Just one man's opinion. *** Nice Post - rk