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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1890)	5/5/1999 11:51:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 34857

Tero, did you notice you were upgraded to a columnist from a 'columnist' by brian h in his last post? He's trying flattery now! I'm happy with the long term Tero. Nokia has done and continues to do a brilliant job. I'm happy for Q! to be compared with that. Pretence isn't of much interest. If it isn't real, who cares? Nokia even had the foresight way back about 1990 to sign up with Q! for CDMA and will now be well placed to take a very substantial and perhaps dominant position in CDMA handsets. They might well displace Q! as market leader in CDMA handsets and while I'd prefer Q! to be the champions, if they are relegated, and managed that process, focusing on ASICs and all the other things, then I'm happy with that. Just as the infrastructure division didn't make money, but did ensure that cdmaOne got underway. Luckily, Motorola, Lucent, Nortel [in cahoots with Q!] and others did a good job of infrastucture and Q! was unnecessary. Now, to China. Yes, you are quite right that GSM expansion continues apace and so it should do while it has economic value. China adopted 'let a thousand flowers bloom' and 'it doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice' a decade or two ago. Translated, that means Zhu and co will retain control, but open things up [perhaps slowly but they have not got around to telecoms]. If cdmaOne and cdma2000 live up to their promise, and they have done so far as shown by Ericy and the whole world choosing Q! technology for future communications, then cdmaOne will be cheap enough and good enough in the Chinese market to prove itself and gain customers by the million. China has ensured that the cdmaOne infrastructure suppliers and handset suppliers give them a VERY good deal or they will buy more GSM. Same for the GSM operators - if the deals aren't sharp enough, cdmaOne will expand more quickly. So far, GSM has a big time to market advantage, WWeb CDMA has the long term advantage and the gap between will be filled by some proportion of cdmaOne. There is obviously sufficient attraction for China to make a fairly decent start a mere week or three after the cave-in by Ericy on WWeb CDMA. I'm sure much of the capital for GSM and CDMA will be provided from vendors or external investors. Maurice