To: RidgeRunner who wrote (17925 ) 5/6/1999 From: GreenKeeper Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 40688
The fundamental question Clint Eastwood would ask is "Do you believe there are bullets left in this gun? Because if you do, you know this Magnum 45 will blow your shorts clean off!" "Well, do ya, punk?" "Do ya?" My simple observation is that PNL's fundamentals are much stronger than they were one year ago. I know that's an obvious statement in light of V3's successful launch, and the strong alliances that have been formed. But, the stock is acting as if it were in last year's turmoil. "AS IF ...!" (Alicia Silverstone, Clueless '98). As if there were no product. As if the IBE was a one time infomercial, and real customers will never materialize. As if there will be no marketing follow up. As if B2B is too far away, and out of PNL's gunsights. Well PNL's gun is loaded, and well aimed, and I'm sure not betting against it. But I am adjusting my expectations, to keep me from dodging this way or that, and getting my shares blown away in a moment of weakness. We launched during ebb tide, right when the internet sector was pulling back. And we are coping with unknowns now, after 'knowing' the V3 party so well. That is a tide and a void that will take some time to overcome. Like maybe a 60 day free subscription period, or maybe a whole summer. Or maybe new announcements ... like customers and banks and UN applause, etc. It is this waiting period that TA guys try to measure. But it is the potential price range that has us all guessing (investing), not the limited downside. What is a realistic guess at the eventual market valuation of PNL? Not what I WANT it to be now (Lord give me patience and give it to me now), but what can I expect the market to give me? An internet sized multiple (15) times revenues (30000 customers times 360) divided by # shares is about 3.60. Double that if you are looking for 60,000 customers, or matching revenues from advertising, alliance fees, netcasts, etc and you get about 7.20, which was roughly our pre launch closing price peak. It is odd how the market can arrive at a number so quickly, then spend so much time backfilling and justifying it. But I believe the market has told us that dreams of $teens are a ways off, though a realistic double can be had from here. And, while we wait, we longs are always poised to benefit from 'somewhat unexpected' surprises (we don't know how big they are but we expect they are coming). So my simple expectation is that we have a very marketable product on our hands, and a great marketer at the helm. Even if we dip into the 2's while a great base is being formed, I believe we will see 3.60 this summer, and 7.20 as that base progresses (which is a tough return to expect of many other stocks). Of course, after reading all the enthusiastic posts today, this may appear overly conservative, but it does give an average investor a thumbnail reason for taking a starting position in this double-to-be. Mr. Eastwood (er ... Mr Z) has the MM's shorts in his sights. Praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition! GK