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To: RidgeRunner who wrote (17925)5/5/1999 3:51:00 PM
From: Bryan  Respond to of 40688
 
Strange......go to the next message



To: RidgeRunner who wrote (17925)5/5/1999 3:52:00 PM
From: Bryan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 40688
 
IMO it would be safe to say we will see a bottom near $2 1/8- $2 3/8

I am looking to scoop em if we see $2 3/8.
Price action in PNLK was toppish near $2.00 for a while, and when we broke above that level it managed to stay supported @ $2.00 after brief consolidation. We retested the support after the run up to $7+, and on another attempt (all things remaining equal) we should hold once again. This is nothing more than simple trend-line analysis. IMHO, anybody who sold this stock above $4.00 would gladly take em back near $2.00. In addition, shorts (yes there are shorts) will be looking at this level as well. It would not surprise me to see bids racked up sub-$2.50.

One thing to keep in mind with trend-line analysis is that levels are approximate only. You have to look at areas of support and resistance. Anybody who says they can formulate exact buy and sell points from TA is full of crap. Just remember that incase PNLK bottoms out @ $2.50 and then starts to rocket again.

This chart illustrates what should be support near $2.00

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209.67.221.61



To: RidgeRunner who wrote (17925)5/5/1999 10:46:00 PM
From: TsioKawe  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 40688
 
That is a cardinal sin to average down to soon, it is a mistake many make and takes away your leverages. A good rule to follow is do not buy a stock when it is consistently falling in price. Let the stock either fall to a base or the company announces an accomplishment that brings in buyers. It is much safer to purchase a stock that is moving up in price then down.

The stock is about to enter oversold territory, this is not uncommon after a spectacular rise in price. Stocks generally tend to see profit taking after they rise. Resistence was at 3 1/8th, the fall below that is bringing the desending triangle near completion. The next level of resistence would be on the bottom of the bollinger band about $2 1/8th. There are 2 likely scenarios which could occur here. The first being a continued downtrending triangle formation until the bottom band is reached or broken through generating a buy signal, or Another round of News releases which could bring a quick PoP to the price and pull the bottom band upward to the 2 1/2 to 2 3/4 range.

The Internet stocks mostly are all in a similiar pattern as PNLK is. Downward trending. Looks like the month of May maybe rough on the nerves if in the INut sector.

But of course I maybe totally wrong. <wink, Wink>

TK



To: RidgeRunner who wrote (17925)5/6/1999
From: GreenKeeper  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 40688
 
The fundamental question Clint Eastwood would ask is "Do you believe there are bullets left in this gun? Because if you do, you know this Magnum 45 will blow your shorts clean off!"

"Well, do ya, punk?"

"Do ya?"

My simple observation is that PNL's fundamentals are much stronger than they were one year ago. I know that's an obvious statement in light of V3's successful launch, and the strong alliances that have been formed. But, the stock is acting as if it were in last year's turmoil.

"AS IF ...!" (Alicia Silverstone, Clueless '98).

As if there were no product.
As if the IBE was a one time infomercial, and real customers will never materialize.
As if there will be no marketing follow up.
As if B2B is too far away, and out of PNL's gunsights.

Well PNL's gun is loaded, and well aimed, and I'm sure not betting against it. But I am adjusting my expectations, to keep me from dodging this way or that, and getting my shares blown away in a moment of weakness.

We launched during ebb tide, right when the internet sector was pulling back. And we are coping with unknowns now, after 'knowing' the V3 party so well. That is a tide and a void that will take some time to overcome. Like maybe a 60 day free subscription period, or maybe a whole summer. Or maybe new announcements ... like customers and banks and UN applause, etc. It is this waiting period that TA guys try to measure.

But it is the potential price range that has us all guessing (investing), not the limited downside. What is a realistic guess at the eventual market valuation of PNL? Not what I WANT it to be now (Lord give me patience and give it to me now), but what can I expect the market to give me?

An internet sized multiple (15) times revenues (30000 customers times 360) divided by # shares is about 3.60.

Double that if you are looking for 60,000 customers, or matching revenues from advertising, alliance fees, netcasts, etc and you get about 7.20, which was roughly our pre launch closing price peak. It is odd how the market can arrive at a number so quickly, then spend so much time backfilling and justifying it. But I believe the market has told us that dreams of $teens are a ways off, though a realistic double can be had from here. And, while we wait, we longs are always poised to benefit from 'somewhat unexpected' surprises (we don't know how big they are but we expect they are coming).

So my simple expectation is that we have a very marketable product on our hands, and a great marketer at the helm. Even if we dip into the 2's while a great base is being formed, I believe we will see 3.60 this summer, and 7.20 as that base progresses (which is a tough return to expect of many other stocks). Of course, after reading all the enthusiastic posts today, this may appear overly conservative, but it does give an average investor a thumbnail reason for taking a starting position in this double-to-be.

Mr. Eastwood (er ... Mr Z) has the MM's shorts in his sights.

Praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition!

GK