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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (5014)	5/7/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Re: 1999 vs. 1993, 1995, and 1997, I sure hope you're right, but if we don't get a correction in the S&P500, and if we get a bear call from Bob, that will definitely cloud the outlook.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (5014)	5/17/1999 10:39:00 PM
From: Lars	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, >>> Now is the time to go long AMAT and this sector. But for the overall market conditions, I have never been more bullish on this sector as I am today. Anybody who is short is going to get their head handed to them over the next few months. If you snooze on this stocks, you will lose. >>> What is your target in next few months? Cycle? I haven't seen you this bullish since our internet mutual fund. HA. >>> There have been noticeable upcycles in 1993, 1995 and 1997 (every two years) in this sector and for AMAT. Hey, what do you know --- this is 1999? Now look at the charts for every one of those cycles and you will see that May through August have been great months without exception. Preceding these runs there have been sector corrections just like the one we are looking at now and they all end right about now. Loading up from May and selling in early August is the best strategy except for a trade after the release of May earnings. Holding after August is more problematic in the absence of a multi-year chip cycle. History may not guarantee success but it may increase your odds. >>> Thanks for the perspective. Interesting.