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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1478)	5/7/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: memflyken2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Okay, ag, here goes with my guess #3. Guesses #1 and #2 based on an April 28th turn date were pretty damn good, you must admit, given the way the Net/Nuts have wandered around in the dark ever since... Close, though, only counts in horsehoes and hand grenades, right? But I digress; we're looking for a 40% swingdown, and that will be tough to come by now that players like YHOO and AMZN are already down 25-30% off early April highs. But, here's the scenario: YHOO has been quietly, very quietly disintegrating before our eyes these last two weeks. Very strange that this has not gotten more attention; the YHOO boards on si, for example, go whole days without posts, and I haven't read a single article (on YHOO) comparable to the Slam on Amazon in last week's Barron's. Very strange, expecially since YHOO's soon-to-be "acquisitions" BCST and GCTY are so deeply in the toilet and downgraded consistently by anybody who bothers to make a comment.. The wild card out there is SofBank, sitting on 28% (I think that's correct; is it?) of YHOO's stock and watching quietly from Tokyo while its faux-value is slowly eroding day-by-day. Softbank itself is not the healthiest of companies, and at some point relatively soon, I theorize, is going to want to jump off the YHOO train to preserve as much capital as possible. I'm not sure if there are any restrictions as to how and when Sofbank can do this, but either way, I expect that announcement (that Sofbank is liquidating half its interest in YHOO, e.g.) to be the beginning of the end for the Net/Nuts. This kind of move not only demonstrates Sofbank's lack of confidence in YHOO, but (equally important) more than doubles the # of shares of YHOO in circulation... The Sofbank announcement is the kiss of death; YHOO plunges 43 points the next day, and the rush for the Net/Nut exits begins. And yes, ag, five days later we're down our magical (and golden) 40%... I think I've got the "how" pegged here. As to the "when," that's a lot more tricky... Certainly, before whispers start about 2Q earnings (I can't imagine they'll be so good at this stage as to cause an updraft); although YHOO has climbed in recent times pre-ER, this "new" market is too quirky to bet on that. So Sofbank announces their dumping relatively soon, i.e. after May options expire. Try to slip it through on the eve of Memorial Day weekend. Say Thursday, May 27th. Friday nobody's much paying attention, but Tuesday, things to go to hell in a handbasket. So I putting my chips down on the Tuesday, June 1st square. Wish me luck..