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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (22340)	5/7/1999 5:22:00 PM
From: Jill	Respond to of 74651

Morgan... What a detailed informative post. Thanx! Jill

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (22340)	5/7/1999 5:54:00 PM
From: johnd	Respond to of 74651

I see MSFT making a new base and then heading up from here. Upside potential into earnings as I see it around 102 - 105. Ther reason is 1.45 (FY99) eps * 70ish PE is 102. Considering MSFT traded at 81 PE last Q there is chance of even higher upside.

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (22340)	5/7/1999 6:33:00 PM
From: John Carpenter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74651

MSFT should seriously consider eliminating the Microsoft Network monthly subscription fees. Even if AOL countered by also lifting its monthly subscription fees, in a war of attrition MSFT's cash hoard, even after the T investment, is $25B versus AOL's cash of just $1.5B. This is really a battle for MSFT's survival. If MSFT doesn't take this action, AOL's market capitalization may exceed MSFT's early next century.

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (22340)	5/7/1999 10:32:00 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 74651

Morgan, Great post on trading. thanks. I am reluctant to jump into MSFT in a big way simply because of this institutional selling pressure. Those small purchases by individuals which may be happening is not enough to make me confident in the very near term. I still see the start of the trial in late May as the turnaround. I think a lot of momentum investors want to wait for even better prices on stock and options(July expiration and later) and based upon the stock price movements in the last 2 days, I would agree with that position. The longer it stays with the market in general, the more confident i would get about buying more shares. In the last 2 days, it has outperformed the Nasdaq---that is a very bullish sign to me. In addition, all that money leaving for net stocks may be ready to come back into MSFT as a safer investment for internet speculators. I am glad we are seeing some not so bright fund managers reducing their positions now rather than later leading into earnings. Should provide for heck of a run-up this quarter. I think the stock split in March messed up the earnings run which was expected in April. This time unless we see a settlement in the next 1 month or so (highly unlikely), the run-up should take place right on schedule--that is, mid June to July earnings. I am looking for my stock buying opportunities. If we get down to 75 (wishfull), July calls should be one incredible lottery ticket! The only problem is that July options expire on the 16th and it is also MSFT's year end. I am not sure if this could cause a delay in the earnings results by upto a week. Might have to consider August options.