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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (13290)	5/9/1999
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

SO: The Market as measured by the Dow 30 Industrials, could correct Monday to the 6000 area and STILL remain in the long-term RISING trading channel established since the 87 peek and correction. (Note: I am not calling for that to happen.) In other words, the long term bull trend would not be broken if the DJI fell to the 6000/6100 area. I would consider it a major correction, if it went to that lower trend line, found support, consolidated and began to rise from there. However, if it penetrated the lower trend line of the very long-term rising channel with some follow through, then the bull rally which started in 82 would be in danger. This bull market actually began from a Dow below 800 in August of 1982. Just a note to help keep the perspective...and provoke some discussion. Regards, LG

To: StockOperator who wrote (13290)	5/9/1999 6:15:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 99985

I did my standard TA analysis that I do on stocks on TYX. The indicators clearly show a, at least local, maximum. I expect it to head down for at least a while though longer term I wouldn't rule out that we are now in an uptrend. That together with the McClellan summation breaking above it's downtrend recently are just two very positive technical indicators I think. The fundamentals still look good too. David

To: StockOperator who wrote (13290)	5/9/1999 9:47:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I doubt it. You have role reversal between the Dow and the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq was in an extreme upward momentum condition in early January as characterized when an index goes straight up and extends above the long-term trading bands (28-week 95% bands). The Nasdaq got almost 10% above the upper band (which would normally characterize an extreme overbought state) before correcting about 12% in February. Since then, the Nasdaq has been had a number of failed breakouts to new highs only to fall back below the January peak and even below the reaction high within the January-February consolidation. The Dow is in the same state now that the Nasdaq was in January. It can stay extended for some time above the upper band at 10,830. The Nasdaq managed for almost five weeks. The Dow has been extended for two weeks. The market is more likely nearing the end of a short-term (1-3 months) or an intermediate-term upmove (6-9 months).