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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DennyKrane who wrote (8252)	5/9/1999 11:20:00 PM
From: Ed Perry	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 17679

Periodically looking at the long range weekly chart for AXC, for some time I have noticed a trading range of congestion in the 6.00 to 8.00 band - see 1992-93 and portions of 1996-97. When not in this band, price seems to run, both upside and downside, with momentum characteristic. Below the price of 6.00, dumping occurs with abandon and the stock quickly becomes oversold taking on "value" sentiment characteristic. The actual bottom range occurred twice now each about 1.00/sh and each lasted about six months - see late 1994 and 98. When trading above 8.00, price runs sharply and takes on explosive "growth" sentiment characteristic. In looking at the range below 6.00 in the time frame 1993-96, about three years were spent below 6.00. There then followed the big runup to 16 in 1996. In the current "value range", AXC has been below 6.00 since June 1997, or about two years. Does this mean that AXC must spent another year basing below 6.00 before another run can be justified? Not necessarily. In working with arithmetic scaled charts, the slope of the current ascending price recovery from approximately 1.00 to 6.00 is much sharper than the recovery in 1995-96. One possible conclusion is that the current recovery process is proceeding at a much faster pace this time around - ie. price is covering more ground in a shorter period of time. However, the current recovery slope is fortunately not as sharp as the slope of the blow-off in 1996. Also current volume is spiking then dropping rather than churning with price and volume moving both high as in the 1996 blow off. I say fortunately for the present, since there are no signs of distribution as there were in the blow-off of 1996. In sum, the base build process could be argued as anything below 6.00, and if so, then we are still basing. If one reads the postings here and especially on Yahoo, this continued basing (with its characteristic confusion and uncertainty) scenario makes a lot of sense. However, since the slope is accentuated, the build could be over in less time then in the observable three years. Where will a run up above 8.00 take AXC? One thing for sure is that 16 will be a level that acts as if it were a certain magnet. Think about the psychology here. At prices above 10, who would sell before 16? What about the "old hands", the "growth" sentiment contingent who bought at these lofty levels years past. I think, most of them are long gone. The evidence of this is the "value" characteristic which began to prevail during the long slide to about 1.00 in 1998. Those "old hands" who did not voluntarily sell before that bottom were probable finally coaxed into selling by virtue of the tax loss opportunity in late 1998. As an aside here, why did some "growth" sentiment holders hang on after 1996? Probably because they did not identify their reasons for initially taking the trade. When the KM story began to wane and prices began to consistently erode, there were plenty of sign posts, both fundamental and TA based, to permit exit right through the summer of 1997. In conclusion, from a study of the long range chart, I observe that we are in the late base building phase, characteristic of AXC, and will soon enter the trading band of 6.00 to 8.00. Here, AXC will become much less of a "value" stock and begin to take on the sentiment of a "growth" stock AXC will probably also pick up some analyst coverage while in this range. If the past is any guide, AXC should spend between 3 to 12 months in this 6.00 to 8.00 congestion range - possibly on the shorter time side. Following on, a run to 16 is "guaranteed". From there, it depends on the "story". For Ampex to move higher than 16 it will have to rapidly become a "story" stock. Ed Perry

To: DennyKrane who wrote (8252)	5/10/1999 9:10:00 AM
From: flickerful	Respond to of 17679

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